607
FXUS61 KBUF 240526
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DAY TO DAY WARMING CONTINUES, WITH FAIR WEATHER TODAY, SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DAY TO DAY WARMING CONTINUES, WITH FAIR WEATHER
TODAY, SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FILLING
WITH FOG.
THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER WITH SUNNY SKIES TODAY, WITH
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY SATURDAY AS A LITTLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SNEAKS NORTHWARD FROM OH/PA. A SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG A LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL MUCH OF OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY WILL BECOME MID 80S FOR SATURDAY.
DEWPOINTS, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH VALUES ONLY NEARING 60F, RESULTING IN A NOT SO HUMID AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CRESTING A ROCKIES/PLAINS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY WILL RETURN UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE RECENTLY DEPARTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE (INCREASING HUMIDITY) ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER.
BUILDING INSTABILITY ACROSS WNY WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY, ACROSS
OUR REGION MONDAY AND INTO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF TIME RAIN-FREE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE UNEVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME AREAS TO BE POURED UPON WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAIN DRY.
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE A DIRECTION THAT CAN BE
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FOR NOW, THE CORE OF THE LLJ AND
GREATER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES APPEARS TO BE TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
TAF CYCLE WITH A LIGHT WIND COURTESY OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION.
FOG IS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS THIS EARLY
MORNING. LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THIS FOG TO EXPAND
UP AND OVER THE KJHW AIRFIELD, HOWEVER A QUITE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
MAY SLOW OR IMPEDE THIS EXPANSION OF FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCFG WITHIN THE KJHW TAF THIS MORNING.
A STRONGER TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW TONIGHT WILL LIMIT
THE EXPANSION OF ANY VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE KJHW AIRFIELD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KJHW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MARINE
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL EASE TO NEW ENGLAND BY TOMORROW, AND MAINTAIN LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page