521
FXUS61 KBUF 242326
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOR ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIMITED
AREAL EXTENT.
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED, BUT THE WEAK
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT INTERACTING WITH THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION
WOULD BE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE AND
WYOMING COUNTIES, WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.
THE SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
MOSTLY END AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER, SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
REACH WESTERN NY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL AGAIN INTERACT
WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND GRADUALLY UPWARD IN A WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES, WITH SIMILAR
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD WITH
MODEST HUMIDITY BY SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ON THE 4-CORNERS
REGION MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORTWAVES WILL
TRAVERSE THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, MAINTAINING A LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITION OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A STRONGER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IF THE TIMING OF STRONGER
FORCING ALIGNS WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE THERE MAY BE AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING DETAILS. THE
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY LATER
NEXT WEEK, WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY. LIMITED FOG IN THE VALLEYS NEAR KJHW SHOULD
NOT IMPACT THE AIRFIELD. SOME CUMULUS WILL START TO DEVELOP FROM
FAR SW NY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AND A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS EAST OF LAKE ERIE, HOWEVER
ALL OF THE SITE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER HILLS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT
WAVE ACTION. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST
COAST, ALLOWING FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A LIGHT
CHOP AT TIMES ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A BETTER CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRIES
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
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