837
FXUS61 KBUF 250546
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
146 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
OCCURING SUNDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
3) UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG WITH A
COOLER AIRMASS WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLY WARM WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OCCURING SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS GRANTED OUR REGION WITH SEVERAL DAYS
OF FINE SUMMER WEATHER HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND, WITH A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW NOW FOUND OVER OUR REGION. THIS FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION, FAVORING THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION TODAY. HI-REZ MODELS TRY TO
DEVELOP A SHOWER OVER THE NOW WARMER LAKE ERIE WATERS THIS MORNING,
LIFTING ANY SHOWERY CONVECTION NORTHWARD TOWARDS BUFFALO. GIVEN THE
DRY AIRMASS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENTERING, WILL JUST PLACE A LOW
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THROUGH MIDDAY FOR AREAS NEAR
LAKE ERIE.
AS PEAK HEATING INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AND INSTABILITY BEGINS TO
BUILD A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG A LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION FOR THE HILLS EAST OF LAKE
ERIE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 5 C/KM AND MUCAPE LESS
THAN A 1K J/KG WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS BEING JUST
GARDEN VARIETY.
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TONIGHT WILL BUILD MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THOUGH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THAT WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEPER INSTABILITY AND
INCREASED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THIS INSTABILITY WE SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP HIGHER
CORES OWING TO INCREASE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THE LACK OF MUCH WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN LIKELY KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, HOWEVER WHAT WILL
BE NOTABLE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY, WITH DEWPOINTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON RISING INTO THE MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER A
BURGEON RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIE MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS
ALOFT SETTLING SOUTHWARD.
A MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO START THE WEEK WILL FUEL INSTABILITY TO
BECOME GREATER SUCH THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME TALLER WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO OVER 7 C/KM, HOWEVER THE FASTER FLOW
AND LONGER 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE FOUND JUST TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SW NYS. ADDITIONAL FORCING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY COULD MAKE THIS
AN ACTIVE PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ALONG WITH A COOLER AIRMASS WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER, MAKING FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK...EVEN
THROUGH AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL LEND TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION BLOSSOMING. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE
EXITS OUR REGION, AND WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAINFREE, THERE
WILL BE CHANCES, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITHIN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND WITH A FEW PATCHES
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS SW NYS.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING BEHIND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING BACK THE PRESENCE OF NOT ONLY A VARIABLE SKY
COVER, BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL FAVOR NEAR LAKE
ERIE AND NORTHEASTWARD WHERE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE WARMER LAKE ERIE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE A PRECIPITATION QUALIFIER INTO THE KBUF AND KIAG TAF AT
THIS TIME.
BY AFTERNOON AND WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG A LAKE ERIE LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS CONVECTION MAY IMPACT KJHW THIS AFTERNOON.
BY EVENING AND WITH THE SETTING SUN ALL CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
WANE. FOG WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED EARLIER RAINFALL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND, A STILL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRANT LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BY
TUESDAY, AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH CHOPPY WATERS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST ENDS OF THE LAKE.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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