631
FXUS61 KBUF 031339
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
939 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SPC HAS NUDGED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NE'WARD INTO PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. TRENDS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
HIGHER-RES MODELS INDICATE IF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OCCUR,
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.
2) QUIETER WEATHER TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC, WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TO ROUND THE BASE TODAY BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BEFORE EXITING SOUTH TONIGHT.
OVERALL, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE AS
PEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
THEN, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE FRIDAY, AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ITS
PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING, A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
IN GENERAL, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SUB-SEVERE
KEEPING ACTIVITY TO GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...QUIETER WEATHER, OVERALL, EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, WHERE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT A DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION
TO THE DRY AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
CLEAR SKIES BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH, THE COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD,
WEAK SURFACE WINDS, ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SOME VALLEY STEAM FOG TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE FINGER
LAKES.
AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK STATE LINE THIS MORNING, AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND WEAK FLOW
EARLY THIS MORNING, MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY AROUND KIAG. FOG
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR TODAY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS
ACROSS THE WESTERN NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ON
BOTH LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTH, WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS
TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
LAST THROUGH MONDAY, SUPPORTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAL/JASZKA
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAL
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