116
FXUS61 KBUF 040044
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
844 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPPED POPS OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COUPLE NARROW BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN
ADVANCE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC...SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODIC...SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...A COUPLE NARROW BANDS OF VERY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INTO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH THESE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER OH/PA CONTINUES TO BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER...WITH THIS MAINLY COMING IN THE
FORM OF SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. THIS LATTER AREA SHOULD
EXIT OUR REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATER ON THIS EVENING.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY GETS
SUPPRESSED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
CWA-WIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION, THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO
BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE BECOMES
MORE EXTENSIVE AND STRENGTHENS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A RATHER HUMID AIR MASS
ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF. BEHIND THE FRONT, A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BUILD FROM NORTHERN ON AND VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOWER 70'S TO LOWER 80'S LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
BE FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MAINLY THE MID 50'S TO MID 60'S
AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LATE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 70'S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE UPPER
40'S TO UPPER 50'S AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING,
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
YIELD LOCALIZED STEAM FOG IN THE RIVER AND LAKE VALLEYS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, IN THE FINGER LAKES, AND IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESPECTIVELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR FAIR WEATHER THIS SATURDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES S'WARD AND OVER OUR REGION AND THE
RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AT TIMES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THAT PART OF OUR CWA.
NEAR-AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE DAILY HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKY AND WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS SHOULD YIELD STEAM FOG
IN THE RIVER AND LAKE VALLEYS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, IN THE
FINGER LAKES, AND IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AROUND DAYBREAK
EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ONLY SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF
TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF ITS FORWARD PROGRESS COMING DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT. ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...A
COUPLE NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LIFR/IFR HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THESE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER OH/PA WILL ALSO FINISH ITS PASSAGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...WITH
MOSTLY SHOWERS AFFECTING THESE AREAS WITH IFR/MVFR.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY STARTS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...IT WILL HELP TO FINALLY FORCE THE COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS POINTS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 AS WE PUSH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN ISSUES TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS AND FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO, WHERE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP (INCLUDING KJHW). SOME LOWER-END VFR/MVFR WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD
THE REGION, HELPING TO PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH, NEARING THE NY/PA LINE AT SOME POINT LATER FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO REMAIN AT OR IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SAID HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIER, WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY
ALLOW MVFR/LOWER-END VFR CIGS TO HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TUESDAY FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS THE
LAKES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING
AND CAUSE SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY WINDS TO VEER TO NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM NORTHERN ON AND VICINITY
THROUGH LABOR DAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE WINDS.
THAT RIDGE SHOULD EXIT S'WARD MONDAY NIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPING S'WARD ACROSS THE LAKES. VARIABLE
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME MAINLY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS FROM NEAR JAMES BAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA/JJR
AVIATION...JM/JJR
MARINE...JASZKA
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