370
FXUS61 KBUF 040655
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
255 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC, SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODIC, SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD OF THE REGION TODAY WILL ALLOW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY SAGGING
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE NY/PA STATE LINE BY
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THIS MORNING, THERE WILL REMAIN
CHANCES FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, THOUGH THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-90.
SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO THE VICINITY OF THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, WILL SUPPORT FAIR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN TONIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD, STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE WILL
BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL
NEW YORK. CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SUPPORT FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, WHERE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT A DRYING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION TO THE DRY AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SUPPORTING HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF SEPTEMBER.
CLEAR SKIES BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH, THE COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD,
WEAK SURFACE WINDS, ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SOME VALLEY STEAM FOG TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE FINGER
LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT SPREAD ACROSS AREAS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, LINGERING MOISTURE FROM
RECORD BREAKING RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS AND CORRESPONDING MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FOR AREAS WEST OF ROCHESTER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACTING TO PUSH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD TO EXIT NEW YORK. WHILE THIS WILL ACT TO SUPPORT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY, AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR/LOW-END VFR
CONDITIONS AND A POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL
IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
THE RIDGE WILL EXIT SOUTH MONDAY, CAUSING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES TUESDAY. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS AND
WAVES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAL
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