137
FXUS61 KBUF 041745
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
145 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PERIODIC, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER IS
LIKELY THROUGH LABOR DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODIC, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, QUIET
WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH LABOR DAY.
NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IMPACT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN ON AND VICINITY. PERIODS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A YOUNGSTOWN
TO DANSVILLE LINE IN OUR CWA, AS PRIMARILY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY IS RELEASED BY THE FOLLOWING: LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND MOIST ASCENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXES ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS; DOWNSHEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING
FAVORABLY WITH LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR. DESPITE THE SIZABLE
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO RELATIVELY-LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND ANY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 70'S
TO NEAR 80F LATE THIS AFTERNOON, LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE
UPPER 40'S TO UPPER 50'S AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY COURTESY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND A COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. THE PARTIAL
CLEARING, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD YIELD PATCHY STEAM AND
RADIATION FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE RIVER AND LAKE VALLEYS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, IN THE FINGER LAKES, AND IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AROUND DAYBREAK.
CURRENT ODDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR FAIR WEATHER THIS SATURDAY
THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES S'WARD AND OVER
OUR REGION, AND THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AT TIMES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THAT
PART OF OUR CWA. NEAR- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE DAILY
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS. MAINLY CLEAR SKY, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD PATCHY STEAM AND
RADIATION FOG IN/NEAR THE RIVER AND LAKE VALLEYS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, IN THE FINGER LAKES, AND IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY, RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT SPREAD ACROSS AREAS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, LINGERING MOISTURE FROM
RECORD BREAKING RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS SUPPORT PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS AND CORRESPONDING MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF ROCHESTER AND AT KART.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACTING TO PUSH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD TO EXIT NEW YORK. WHILE THIS WILL ACT TO SUPPORT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY, AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR/LOW-END VFR
CONDITIONS AND A POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM. SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL
IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TUESDAY FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. A RIDGE BUILDS FROM NORTHERN ON AND VICINITY THROUGH
LABOR DAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE WINDS. THAT RIDGE
SHOULD EXIT S'WARD MONDAY NIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING S'WARD ACROSS THE LAKES. VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BECOME MAINLY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
MAINLY NE'ERLY TO SE'ERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS FROM NEAR JAMES BAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT
SE'WARD THIS WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SWEEP NE'WARD
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TO VEER TO SW'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 4 TO 7 FEET. THESE FORECAST
CONDITIONS MAY PROMPT THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...JASZKA
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