195
FXUS61 KBUF 041859
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
259 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH LABOR DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY
THROUGH LABOR DAY.
NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IMPACT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN ON AND VICINITY. PERIODS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A
YOUNGSTOWN TO DANSVILLE LINE IN OUR CWA, AS PRIMARILY WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS RELEASED BY THE FOLLOWING: LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ASCENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXES
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS; DOWNSHEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERACTING FAVORABLY WITH LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO
BE GREATER. DESPITE THE SIZABLE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
RELATIVELY-LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 70'S TO
NEAR 80F LATE THIS AFTERNOON, LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE UPPER
40'S TO UPPER 50'S AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY COURTESY OF PARTIAL
CLEARING, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND A COOLER/DRIER AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. THE PARTIAL
CLEARING, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD YIELD PATCHY STEAM AND
RADIATION FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE RIVER AND LAKE VALLEYS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, IN THE FINGER LAKES, AND IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AROUND DAYBREAK.
CURRENT ODDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR FAIR WEATHER THIS SATURDAY
THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES S'WARD AND OVER
OUR REGION, AND THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AT TIMES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THAT
PART OF OUR CWA. NEAR-AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE DAILY
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS. MAINLY CLEAR SKY, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD PATCHY STEAM AND
RADIATION FOG IN/NEAR THE RIVER AND LAKE VALLEYS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, IN THE FINGER LAKES, AND IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY, RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MADE IT SOUTH TO NEAR THE NY/PA LINE, WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER (INCLUDING KJHW) WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR
CIGS CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FURTHER NORTH, A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DECKS ARE MAINLY FEW-SCT, WITH SOME BKN LOW-END VFR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA, BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO
THE SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW) THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH A PORTION OF THIS
EVENING, WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS KBUF/KIAG
AS WELL.
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PRESS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH ASSOCIATED DRIER AND
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TONIGHT,
HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL RESIDING SOUTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW)
AGAIN, WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTH, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY, WITH THE
SOUTHERN TIER RETURNING TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE, A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND A SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY (KART) THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH PINWHEELING ABOUT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST SWINGS BY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT AREA. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL
IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TUESDAY FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. A RIDGE BUILDS FROM NORTHERN ON AND VICINITY THROUGH
LABOR DAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE WINDS. THAT RIDGE
SHOULD EXIT S'WARD MONDAY NIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING S'WARD ACROSS THE LAKES. VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BECOME MAINLY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
MAINLY NE'ERLY TO SE'ERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS FROM NEAR JAMES BAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT
SE'WARD THIS WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SWEEP NE'WARD
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TO VEER TO SW'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 4 TO 7 FEET. THESE FORECAST
CONDITIONS MAY PROMPT THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JASZKA
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