411
FXUS61 KBUF 050000
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH LABOR DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY
THROUGH LABOR DAY.
NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IMPACT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN ON AND VICINITY. PERIODS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A
YOUNGSTOWN TO DANSVILLE LINE IN OUR CWA, AS PRIMARILY WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS RELEASED BY THE FOLLOWING: LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ASCENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXES
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS; DOWNSHEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERACTING FAVORABLY WITH LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO
BE GREATER. DESPITE THE SIZABLE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
RELATIVELY-LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 70'S TO
NEAR 80F LATE THIS AFTERNOON, LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE UPPER
40'S TO UPPER 50'S AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY COURTESY OF PARTIAL
CLEARING, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND A COOLER/DRIER AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. THE PARTIAL
CLEARING, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD YIELD PATCHY STEAM AND
RADIATION FOG ALONG AND NEAR THE RIVER AND LAKE VALLEYS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO, IN THE FINGER LAKES, AND IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AROUND DAYBREAK.
CURRENT ODDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR FAIR WEATHER THIS SATURDAY
THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES S'WARD AND OVER
OUR REGION, AND THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AT TIMES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT IMPACT THAT
PART OF OUR CWA. NEAR-AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE DAILY
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS. MAINLY CLEAR SKY, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS, AND
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD PATCHY STEAM AND
RADIATION FOG IN/NEAR THE RIVER AND LAKE VALLEYS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO, IN THE FINGER LAKES, AND IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY, RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT RESIDES NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER THIS EVENING. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY AS
WELL AS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF KBUF AND KROC AND EAST OF KART. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING AND
CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT PATCHY FOG IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KJHW, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT
REMAINING TAF SITES.
A NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KART. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST, DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TUESDAY FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO. A RIDGE BUILDS FROM NORTHERN ON AND VICINITY THROUGH
LABOR DAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE WINDS. THAT RIDGE
SHOULD EXIT S'WARD MONDAY NIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING S'WARD ACROSS THE LAKES. VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BECOME MAINLY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
MAINLY NE'ERLY TO SE'ERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS FROM NEAR JAMES BAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT
SE'WARD THIS WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SWEEP NE'WARD
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TO VEER TO SW'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES
SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 4 TO 7 FEET. THESE FORECAST
CONDITIONS MAY PROMPT THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...JASZKA
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