329
FXUS61 KBUF 052008
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
408 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY.
DISCUSSION
A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY.
OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN A STALLED UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND/NOVA SCOTIA AND A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS ANYTIME
A TROUGH PINWHEELING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER OR NEAR OUR
AREA, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR AND ISOLATED SHOWER.
THIS AFTERNOON THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES BY JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST.
COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS GETTING
DOWN AROUND +9. WITH LAKE TEMPS STILL SITTING AROUND +22/+23, THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO ELICIT A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ON
LAKE ERIE AS A CONVERGENT NE TO ENE FLOW SETS UP ON LAKE ERIE WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. A N TO NNE CROSS-
LAKE FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS SOUTH
OF THE LAKE, AND WITH THE ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW, MAY SEE A
FEW LAKE ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE FINGER LAKES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS
DRY WITH COMFORTABLE SLEEPING WEATHER.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS A BIT FURTHER
EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. THIS WILL END ANY LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU WITH MAINLY LOW-END VFR BASES HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS GETTING
DOWN AROUND +9. WITH LAKE TEMPS STILL SITTING AROUND +22/+23, THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO ELICIT A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE OVERNIGHT. A N TO NNE
CROSS-LAKE FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE LAKE, AND WITH THE ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW, MAY
SEE A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES OVERNIGHT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LAKE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE LOW-END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY.
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP LIMIT SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG TO A DEGREE,
HOWEVER LOW STRATUS MAY INTERSECT THE HILLTOPS AS WELL.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MEANWHILE, SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO, EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS (LOW CIGS) TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH ALL SITES VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15-17 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
LAKE ONTARIO FROM THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AS IT BUILDS TOWARD THE LOWER
LAKES. WAVES OF 2-3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO WAVE
ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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