907
FXUS61 KBUF 060011
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY.
OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN A STALLED UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND/NOVA SCOTIA AND A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS ANYTIME
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PINWHEELING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER OR
NEAR OUR AREA, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING...A
FEW OF THESE ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
INTO CENTRAL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE SUCH PASSING IMPULSE.
COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS GETTING DOWN
AROUND +9C. WITH LAKE TEMPS STILL SITTING AROUND +22/+23C, THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO ELICIT A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE OVERNIGHT. OFF LAKE ERIE A
CONVERGENT NE TO ENE FLOW WILL SET UP...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE A N TO NNE CROSS-LAKE FLOW
OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS SOUTH OF THAT
LAKE, AND WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW, WE MAY SEE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS DEVELOP...
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH COMFORTABLE
SLEEPING WEATHER.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS A BIT FURTHER
EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. THIS WILL END ANY LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF THIS WRITING...A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY ATTENDANT TO A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THESE WILL FADE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT
LARGELY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...WITH A
BROKEN DECK OF MID-LEVEL VFR CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING.
COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS GETTING DOWN
AROUND +9C. WITH LAKE TEMPS STILL SITTING AROUND +22/+23C, THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO ELICIT A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE OVERNIGHT. A N TO NNE CROSS-
LAKE FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS SOUTH OF
THAT LAKE, AND WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW, WE MAY SEE A
FEW WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION. FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LAKE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE
LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO, WITH SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
THE THRUWAY. WHILE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG TO A DEGREE, LOW STRATUS MAY INTERSECT THE
HILLTOPS AS WELL...WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WHERE
THIS OCCURS.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE ABOVE MIX OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
RENEWED DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING HELPS TO MIX OUT/BREAK UP THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER...WITH ANY LINGERING CEILINGS THEN
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH
LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 15-17 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
LAKE ONTARIO FROM THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AS IT BUILDS TOWARD THE LOWER
LAKES. WAVES OF 2-3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO WAVE
ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/JJR
AVIATION...JM/JJR
MARINE...JM
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