464
FXUS61 KBUF 070611
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
211 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND EVEN 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS. SOME
FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE AND AS MIXING TAKES PLACE.
OTHERWISE...A ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL UNFOLD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA PROMOTING SUN-FILLED SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...AGAIN SOME FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND IN THE VALLEYS
ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID-UPPER 40S IN THE
COOLER LOCALES.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY QUITE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH...WE MAY
SEE SOME CLOUDS PUSH IN ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS A BACK DOOR FRONT DROPS ACROSS THAT REGION.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST WE EVEN COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THERE
BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURING IS LOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A
TAD BIT WARMER WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A NARROW
AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE (PW VALUES 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES) WILL BE
ADVECT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL SHOWING IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS A BELT OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL IF THE TIMING OF FORCING ALIGNS WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE DRIER
WEATHER SLOWLY RETURN THURSDAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER. COOLER
AND DRY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VALLEY FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CONDITONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY WITH A
SLOW BUT GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS AND THEN LESSENING WAVE
ACTION THROUGH FRIDAY.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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