526
FXUS61 KBUF 080640
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
240 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1)MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SINK TO OUR SOUTH TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING
OUT OF CANADA. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY
WEATHER TODAY, AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. NOT QUITE AS COOL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DEEP RICH MOISTURE
AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT (1.9-2.1 INCHES) ENVIRONMENT
ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, ALTHOUGH AS WAS NOTED STORMS SHOULD MOVE RIGHT ALONG AND
KEEP THE FLOOD RISK LOW. AS FAR AS THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL,
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY WEAK INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) BUT
DECENT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS BUT AGAIN THE OVERALL LAKE OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HOLD DOWN THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THURSDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOME LIMITED RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY TO
KJHW THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE VFR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE MID-ALANTIC REGION TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO INCLUDE KART. LITTLE IMPACT TO AIRPORT
OPERATIONS WITH A CONTINUATION OF VFR.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLES, MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LOCAL/BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR. A SMALL CHANCE OF
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING S TO SSW FLOW PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCAS) CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON BOTH LAKES. AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES EXPECTED SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE HIGHER WIND AND WAVE
ACTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND DIMINISHING WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
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