226
FXUS61 KBUF 091824
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THIS MORNING'S
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
2) NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER TO
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
A DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AT 15Z THIS MORNING IS
CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. THESE
FRONTS ARE CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING ARE FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE
ONTARIO PENINSULA, MICHIGAN AND INTO CHICAGO AS OF 17Z. IN BETWEEN
THE TWO FEATURES, MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS SODDEN WITH CLOUD COVER,
HOWEVER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THERE IS A PATCH OF
CLEARING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, CAUSING 0-6KM SHEAR TO TOPPLE OUT
AT AROUND 40 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS ACROSS WNY IN TIME
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE OVERLAP IN THE PEAK OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND INCREASING
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. PLEASE NOTE,
DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIE ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA,
CATTARAUGUS, AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL A PLUME OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES (99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER) WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHICH
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS, THERE MAY BE SOME TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LOW
RISK FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT THURSDAY, A
COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
SUPPORTING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVERHEAD OF THE HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON IS
SUPPORTING 2 FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVERHEAD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE FIRST OF THE FRONTS IS A WARM FRONT SPRAWLED ACROSS WESTERN
QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS OF 18Z, SUPPORTING AN
AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND BLANKET OF MVFR CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. MEANWHILE THE SECOND FRONT, IS PASSING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MICHIGAN, WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
IS PASSING ACROSS THE STATE OF MICHIGAN AND INTO CHICAGO. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO AREA, THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE KJHW IS SEEING PATCHES OF CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.
AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE, THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREAS SEEING
SOME SUNSHINE CURRENTLY, AND THEREFOR MAINLY IMPACT KJHW FROM 21Z TO
03Z. WITHIN THE LINE OF SHOWERS, CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR, WITH
SOME LOCALIZED IFR ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, SUPPORTING CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR AND DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
MARINE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON THE LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE
AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SMALL CRAFTS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS
LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXPANDED ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY,
HOWEVER 15 TO 25 KTS IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND WAVES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAL/HSK
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