860
FXUS61 KBUF 092229
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
629 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THIS MORNING'S
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
2) NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER TO
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
A DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AT 15Z THIS MORNING IS
CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. THESE
FRONTS ARE CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING ARE FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE
ONTARIO PENINSULA, MICHIGAN AND INTO CHICAGO AS OF 17Z. IN BETWEEN
THE TWO FEATURES, MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS SODDEN WITH CLOUD COVER,
HOWEVER ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THERE IS A PATCH OF
CLEARING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, CAUSING 0-6KM SHEAR TO TOPPLE OUT
AT AROUND 40 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO PASS ACROSS WNY IN TIME
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE OVERLAP IN THE PEAK OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND INCREASING
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. PLEASE NOTE,
DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIE ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA,
CATTARAUGUS, AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL A PLUME OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES (99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER) WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHICH
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS, THERE MAY BE SOME TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LOW
RISK FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT THURSDAY, A
COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
SUPPORTING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECT
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH 00Z/FRI. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES EXITING E'WARD BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS E'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN ~03Z/THURS AND
~09Z/THURS. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND VICINITY THROUGH 00Z/FRI. OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS TREND SW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE POST-FRONT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES LATE THURS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, AS
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TAPS INTO
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR
TO LIFR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER-
REACHES OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ~03Z/THURS AND ~10Z/THURS. FAIR
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN CEILINGS IN MAINLY THE 2KFT
TO 5KFT AGL RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ~14Z/THURS, BUT LOWER
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION,
WHERE PATCHY MIST/FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED BETWEEN ~08Z/THURS AND
~12Z/THURS, INCLUDING AT/NEAR KJHW. AFTER ~14Z/THURS, LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER- OUT TO DIURNAL CUMULI WITH
BASES MAINLY NEAR 3KFT TO 4KFT AGL. THESE DIURNAL CUMULI ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 21Z/THURS AND 00Z/FRI, IN RESPONSE
TO BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED.
MARINE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON THE LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE
AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SMALL CRAFTS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS
LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXPANDED ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY,
HOWEVER 15 TO 25 KTS IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND WAVES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...EAL
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...EAL/HSK
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