750
FXUS61 KBUF 100251
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST AS THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE VIA
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND IN SOME INSTANCES, THE WET-BULB EFFECT
ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING.
2) NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER TO
RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE PREDAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING.
W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR
REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT E'WARD BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS E'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION VERY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
ABOUT 5 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
VICINITY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT
AND PRE-FRONT SURFACE TROUGH AXES ACCOMPANYING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHOULD RELEASE WEAK, YET
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED AND PERIODIC
SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER AND MINOR CLEARING ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT AS
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OCCURS
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THE MINOR
CLEARING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO LOWS REACHING THE 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD
LOCALIZED STEAM FOG IN THE LAKE AND RIVER VALLEYS IN AND NEAR
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AROUND DAYBREAK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD GRADUALLY INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING FRONT THURSDAY, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECT
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH 00Z/FRI. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES EXITING E'WARD BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS E'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN ~03Z/THURS AND
~09Z/THURS. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND VICINITY THROUGH 00Z/FRI. OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS TREND SW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE POST-FRONT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES LATE THURS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION, AS
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TAPS INTO
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR
TO LIFR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER-
REACHES OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA GENERALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN ~03Z/THURS AND ~10Z/THURS. FAIR
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN CEILINGS IN MAINLY THE 2KFT
TO 5KFT AGL RANGE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ~14Z/THURS, BUT LOWER
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION,
WHERE PATCHY MIST/FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED BETWEEN ~08Z/THURS AND
~12Z/THURS, INCLUDING AT/NEAR KJHW. AFTER ~14Z/THURS, LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER- OUT TO DIURNAL CUMULI WITH
BASES MAINLY NEAR 3KFT TO 4KFT AGL. THESE DIURNAL CUMULI ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 21Z/THURS AND 00Z/FRI, IN RESPONSE
TO BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED.
MARINE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON THE LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE
AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SMALL CRAFTS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS
LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXPANDED ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY,
HOWEVER 15 TO 25 KTS IS EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND WAVES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ005-006.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...EAL/JASZKA
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...EAL/HSK
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