780
FXUS61 KBUF 171048
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL ZONE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF TODAY.
2) A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER, COOLER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FRONTAL ZONE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY.
THIS MORNING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES NEAR THE STATE LINE,
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OH/PA. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING, WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED AS MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY LIE BELOW 500
J/KG. HOWEVER, AS PWATS BECOME GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES TO AROUND
2.00 INCHES AND NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE OR EVEN POSSIBLE RECORD
VALUES PER BUFFALO SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE
IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN HEAVIER OR
TRAINING ACTIVITY. GREATEST RISK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER,
LYING CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THE TIMING OF CONVECTION, GENERALLY IN THE MORNING, COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LEND TO A LOW SEVERE THREAT, THOUGH THE
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT COULD POSE A HYDROLOGIC ISSUE WITH HEAVIER
STORMS, POTENTIALLY PASSING OVER THE SAME AREAS THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER, COOLER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
DENDRITIC RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND BLACK RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT MAY EVEN
BECOME COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THAT IF WINDS BECOME CALM, THAT
ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT FROST FORM IN THE TRADITIONALLY COLDER
AREAS OF THE INLAND NORTH COUNTRY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN EMERGES SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE
EAST. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RIPPLE ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
ENSEMBLES DATA FROM THE GEFS, GEPS AND ENS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, THIS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH DEVELOPING WEAK INSTABILITY. SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH (CURRENTLY FEATURED AS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORCAL) WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS FORMING PLENTY OF
IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
(KJHW) AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHETHER FOG OR LOW STRATUS,
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH A SURFACE LOW UPON THE FRONT,
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF REGION. THIS SURFACE LOW, WITH
ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING SHOWERS, AT TIMES LOCALLY
HEAVY, AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BACK INTO OUR REGION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS UPON THE FRONT WILL INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN
TIER (KJHW) WITH A LOWER CHANCE, AND COVERED BY A PROB30 FOR
KROC THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. ANY HEAVIER STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD, IT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER FOR KART, WITH THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS EXITING THE
SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. LOCALIZED FOG FORMATION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND BLACK RIVER VALLEYS IS LIKELY, POSSIBLY EXPANDING ACROSS KJHW
AND KART.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EARLY MORNING IS BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK AROUND TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS WNY.
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW, FRESHENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR NEAR, BUT LIKELY
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A MUCH LIGHTER WIND FLOW.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page