736
FXUS61 KBUF 171738
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
138 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
2) DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
3) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING, WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS
NORTHERN PA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING A WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, FINGER LAKES, AND POSSIBLY
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ANY REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING, LEAVING DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO FLOW ADJUSTMENTS AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUAL NORTH TO SOUTH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. LOW
STRATUS MAY INTERSECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES AT TIMES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME HILLTOP FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO FRIDAY TO
QUEBEC SATURDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BRINGING A
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
HAS SLOWED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS COMPARED TO GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY, SO
MOST AREAS ARE NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SOME PATCHY FROST CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND
WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOLER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS INCREASE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO AND PA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, FORCING THE FRONTAL ZONE TO
TEMPORARILY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NY/PA BORDER. INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES, RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER.
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND STEADILY SOUTH WITH THE
POSITION OF THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND
ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER QUEBEC. THE FARTHER SOUTH FRONTAL POSITION
CONTINUES TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND IF
THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY END UP
BEING MAINLY DRY.
THE FARTHER SOUTH FRONTAL POSITION WILL ALSO YIELD COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, FINGER LAKES, AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH A WEALTH OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
TONIGHT, ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING. VFR WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS WITH A GRADUAL NORTH TO SOUTH
DECREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME OF
THE STRATUS MAY INTERSECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HILLTOP
FOG/MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY, ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR
TO PREVAIL WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. VFR/MVFR FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER, VFR ELSEWHERE.
MARINE
NORTH WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT
TO MODERATE CHOP AT TIMES ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN REMAIN
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
MODERATE CHOP ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page