800
FXUS61 KBUF 180555
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
155 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
MORNING WILL CREST A CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, CARRIED EASTWARD WITHIN A PERSISTENT WEST-EAST FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE PWATS OVER OUR REGION TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES, OR GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR BUFFALO
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
LIFT AHEAD OF A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOWER
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
THE AXIS OF DEEPER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST, LEAVING THE
THUNDER THREAT LOW. HOWEVER THE DEEPENING WARM CLOUD DEPTH TO OVER
12K FEET ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WILL LEND TO HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.
THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH A MOISTURE RICH LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN LOW STRATUS AND FOG
POSSIBLE.
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY, POSSIBLY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
BEFORE ANOTHER IMPULSE RETURNS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS YIELDING PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND HIGHER ELEVATION FOG THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE LOWER
TERRAIN, INCLUDING KBUF, KIAG AND KROC WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
WITHIN THE LOWER STRATUS.
DRIER AIR ADVECTED SOUTHWARD WILL ERODE THIS STRATUS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPS. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR THESE CUMULUS
CLOUDS TO COLLECT ENOUGH FOR A BKN SKY COVER, BUT LIKELY WITHIN VFR
FLIGHT RANGE.
WITH THE SETTING SUN SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY, BUT MAY
NOT EXPAND ACROSS THE KJHW AIRFIELD DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
LOWER LEVEL AIR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. VFR/MVFR FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LIGHT CHOP ON THE WATERS AT TIMES. THIS
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO NORTHEAST AND EVEN EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING
WAVE HEIGHTS UP ON THE WATERS WEST OF HILTON UP TO AROUND 2 FEET OR
SO ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL INCREASE A
TAD STRONGER THAN SATURDAY, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 2 OR EVEN 3
FEET ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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