189
FXUS61 KBUF 181733
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
133 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COOL TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
PROMOTING DRY WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY TODAY
AND MOST OF SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NY NEAR THE TUG
HILL AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S BY SATURDAY MORNING AS WE ARE ONLY ~2 WEEKS AWAY
FROM THE AVERAGE FIRST FALL FREEZE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS PA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOOK TO PASS OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS IN
EASTERN CANADA PASSES THROUGH AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRIMARILY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA, INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER,
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES SITS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER AND THE PRESENCE OF WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH AROUND 10-12
KFT. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL AROUND 60%, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND 5-10
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW-SCT
CUMULUS DECK WILL ERODE WITH THE SETTING SUN.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. VFR/MVFR FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY. VFR/MVFR WITH
DRIER WEATHER FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS (10-15 KT) CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKES TODAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC
TONIGHT TURNING WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT CHOP ON THE WATERS, BUT REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO LIGHT CHOP FOR MOST, BUT
WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 3 FEET WEST OF HAMLIN BEACH. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
ELEVATED FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROTHERS
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...BROTHERS
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