817
FXUS61 KBUF 182315
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
715 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COOL TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
PROMOTING DRY WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY TODAY
AND MOST OF SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NY NEAR THE TUG
HILL AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S BY SATURDAY MORNING AS WE ARE ONLY ~2 WEEKS AWAY
FROM THE AVERAGE FIRST FALL FREEZE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS PA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOOK TO PASS OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS IN
EASTERN CANADA PASSES THROUGH AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRIMARILY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA, INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER,
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES SITS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER AND THE PRESENCE OF WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH AROUND 10-12
KFT. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL AROUND 60%, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ALOFT W'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH 00Z/SUN. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE
CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR AREA AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WOBBLES SE'WARD FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE 12Z/SAT. FROM 12Z THROUGH 00Z/SUN,
OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TREND NE'ERLY TO SE'ERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL AND ESPECIALLY UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND STREAM
GENERALLY E'WARD TO ESE'WARD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. IN
NORTH-CENTRAL NY, STEAM MIST/FOG RESULTING IN MVFR TO LIFR IS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLACK RIVER BETWEEN ~07Z/SAT AND
~13Z/SAT, INCLUDING AT/NEAR KART.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH
MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MONDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR LIKELY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH MVFR
OR WORSE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT WHILE
SLIGHTLY INCREASING, WITH A MODERATE CHOP DEVELOPING FROM SODUS BAY
WEST TO THE NIAGARA RIVER WITH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 3 FEET.
WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY WHILE ALSO SLOWLY WEAKENING
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FEET GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS FROM
HAMLIN BEACH WESTWARD, WITH MAINLY LIGHT CHOP ON THE REMAINDER OF
THE LAKES. WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT CHOP.
OTHERWISE, RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
FRESHENING NORTHEASTERLIES DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
LIKELY LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROTHERS
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page