329
FXUS61 KBUF 191750
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
150 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE LOWERED ACROSS WESTERN NY SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE MID-WEST TO
WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-WEST TODAY, THEN MOVE EAST ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG LOW TO
MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.5" (97TH
PERCENTILE) WILL ENTER WESTERN NY. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE
SHOWERS ENTER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AS
THE COLUMN SATURATES. MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MUCAPE OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND DEEP MOISTURE
MAY RESULT IN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
THE MAIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NY LATE
TONIGHT, WHILE MOVING INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NY. THIS WILL BRING
A BREAK IN STEADY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY, HOWEVER DRIZZLE MAY
PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS OVER 1.4" (90TH PERCENTILE) WILL ENTER NORTH-CENTRAL NY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION, WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING SOUTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN NY, WHILE BENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BUILDING HIGH WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.25"
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO 0.50"-
0.75" NEAR THE NY/PA LINE AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. A COOL, NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE 40S,
HOWEVER THE UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
AND SKY COVER ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, AND THIS MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES EARLY
IN THE WEEK. MEAN QPF AND MSLP SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH WILL BUILD FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH FOR SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER, HOWEVER IN SCENARIOS WHERE THE HIGH IS WEAKER, MEASURABLE QPF
COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS I-90. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST HAS LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
INCREASING CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER MAY SEE RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE ELSEWHERE WILL
SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS,
EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH IFR
CEILINGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 08Z. BEFOREHAND, BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH.
LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL PRIMARILY TURN TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR WORSE EXPECTED.
MONDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR LIKELY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR WORSE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
A EASTERLY FLOW 5-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING
HIGHER WAVE ACTION FORCED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS...FIRST AS THEY BACK AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY AND THEN STRENGTHEN FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH AND THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO OUR REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THESE
SCA THEN CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...BROTHERS
MARINE...HSK/THOMAS
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