785
FXUS61 KBUF 200216
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
758 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE LOWERED ACROSS WESTERN NY SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE MID-WEST TO
WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-WEST TODAY, THEN MOVE EAST ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG LOW TO
MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.5" (97TH
PERCENTILE) WILL ENTER WESTERN NY. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE
SHOWERS ENTER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AS
THE COLUMN SATURATES. MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MUCAPE OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND DEEP MOISTURE
MAY RESULT IN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
THE MAIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NY LATE
TONIGHT, WHILE MOVING INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NY. THIS WILL BRING
A BREAK IN STEADY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY, HOWEVER DRIZZLE MAY
PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS OVER 1.4" (90TH PERCENTILE) WILL ENTER NORTH-CENTRAL NY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION, WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN STAYING SOUTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN NY, WHILE BENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO NORTH-CENTRAL NY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BUILDING HIGH WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.25"
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO 0.50"-
0.75" NEAR THE NY/PA LINE AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. A COOL, NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE 40S,
HOWEVER THE UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
AND SKY COVER ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, AND THIS MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES EARLY
IN THE WEEK. MEAN QPF AND MSLP SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH WILL BUILD FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH FOR SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER, HOWEVER IN SCENARIOS WHERE THE HIGH IS WEAKER, MEASURABLE QPF
COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS I-90. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST HAS LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
W'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH 00Z/MON. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
LOW/MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES.
AT THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH AFFECTS OUR REGION FOR THE TIME
BEING AND THIS TROUGH'S AXIS SHOULD MOVE SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION
BETWEEN ~12Z/SUN AND ~20Z/SUN. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS, A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM NORTHERN ON AND VICINITY THROUGH 00Z/MON.
OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TREND E'ERLY TO SE'ERLY AROUND 5
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH AXIS' PASSAGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BACK TO NE'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTS.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, STEADY AT TIMES, ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AND GRADUALLY THROUGH 08Z/SUN. SIMULTANEOUSLY, CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LOWER FROM THE VFR RANGE TO IFR RANGE
AND GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. PERIODIC MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN STEADIER RAIN, AND
PERIODIC LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES FROM AROUND DAYBREAK
THROUGH AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE RIDGE, SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD END IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FASHION
ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN ~14Z/SUN AND ~21Z/SUN. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CEILINGS IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MANNER AFTER ~20Z/SUN AND BY 00Z/MON, LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY SHOULD BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KGTB TO KERI LINE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR, BUT MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR WORSE
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
EASTERLY FLOW AND WAVE ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN ON THE
LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY MORNING PRODUCING
WAVES OF GENERALLY A FOOT OR LESS, HOWEVER WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET
FROM HAMLIN BEACH WESTWARD.
OTHERWISE, PERIODIC RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH FRESHENING NORTHEASTERLIES DEVELOPING LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, LIKELY
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON PORTIONS OF THE LOWER LAKES.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JM
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