883
FXUS61 KBUF 201731
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
131 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MID-WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO EASTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, HOWEVER
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. AN EASTERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT COOL WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S, 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. WEAK TROUGHING TO ZONAL FLOW WILL SET-UP
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-WEST THROUGH THE
WEEK. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION, HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW PERIODS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY
MOVE INTO WESTERN NY. BEGINNING LATE MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK 850MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MID-WEEK. AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC WILL CREATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER. OUTSIDE
OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCT-BKN LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NY TERMINALS AND IFR
CONDITIONS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH EARLIER SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BE PULLED AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST, NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE FOR CLOUD COVER
AROUND 2-5 KFT IN ADDITION TO HAVING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT, BUT EXPECTING MOST SITES TO DROP BACK
DOWN TO MVFR CEILINGS HEADED INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO MAINLY VFR CEILINGS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR
WORSE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MORNING FOG NEAR RIVER AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKES TODAY.
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE LAKES ARE
EXPECTED, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE
TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
MOVE OFFSHORE FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LAPSE MONDAY NIGHT. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF STEADY EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND FROM THE NIAGARA
RIVER TO SODUS BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LOZ030-044-045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...BROTHERS
MARINE...HSK
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