287
FXUS61 KBUF 210959
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
559 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MID-WEEK.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE BULK OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. AS IT DOES
SO...THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK OFF AND MERGE WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A MODEST
CLOSED LOW THAT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC PROVINCES AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A PREVAILING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
COOLEST DAYS WILL BE TODAY AND TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS...AND NIGHTLY LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION TO THE LATTER WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH TONIGHT/
REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED FROST IN A FEW SPOTS. GRADUAL DAY-
TO-DAY WARMING WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS OUR
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE APPROACHING OHIO VALLEY
SHORTWAVES/DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW SHOULD ENCOURAGE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING TO OUR SOUTH TO TEMPORARILY EDGE BACK NORTHWARD AGAIN
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHEN MOISTURE/LIFT FROM THESE
FEATURES MAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH AND LARGELY
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION DRY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY THROWS A
FEW SHOWERS BACK ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THIS
POTENTIAL DEPENDENT UPON JUST HOW FAR WEST THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY
GETS.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OF SUFFICIENTLY COOL/MOIST AIR WILL
GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MVFR-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS WITHIN THESE PRIMARILY RANGING FROM 1.5-2 KFT AGL. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND DIURNAL MIXING/DRYING
OUT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL THEN HELP TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT
THESE LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO VFR AREAWIDE.
TONIGHT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST...SAVE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING MAY SUPPORT
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME MVFR-LEVEL CEILINGS AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING POSSIBLE NEAR THE
PA BORDER LATE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. FOG
POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AT AND AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR RIVER AND LAKE VALLEYS.
MARINE
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL BUILD
ACROSS QUEBEC AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
FAIRLY BRISK FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK THAT
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY OVER TIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF BOTH LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH THESE THEN BECOMING MORE CONFINED
TO AREAS FROM SODUS BAY WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...
AND THEN FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO THE NIAGARA RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY. ANY LINGERING SCA-LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND RESULTS IN A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH A COMMENSURATE LOWERING OF
WINDS AND WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ001-
002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ003-
004.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ005-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ045.
DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JASZKA/JJR
MARINE...JJR
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