758
FXUS61 KBUF 211926
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, BRINGING CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION, HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE
NY/PA LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO THE 40S WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
POSSIBLY SEEING THE UPPER 30S. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 30S IS LOW, AS THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WELL TO THE NORTH
AND UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER DOES NOT OFFER THE BEST SET-UP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST IN KNOWN COLD SPOTS ACROSS JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO OUR SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING CLOSED LOW TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
FROM EASTERN CANADA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND WIDESPREAD DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY BUT STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND DIURNAL MIXING CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WORK ON THE PERSISTENT MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH THE SLOW
EROSION OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NY
AS SEEN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS, LOW LEVEL OVC CIGS THAT
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO FAR ARE STARTING TO THIN
AND LIFT A BIT WITH THE LATEST METARS SHOWING MANY LOCATIONS NOW
REPORTING BKN MVFR DECKS. EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR FINALLY
WINNING OUT WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO AT LEAST LOW
VFR THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF
15-20 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
A MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, HOWEVER
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO EXPECTING MAINLY
VFR LEVEL DECKS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER CLOSER TO SURFACE TROUGHING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR OR POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF THE NY/PA LINE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MVFR CIGS.
MVFR CIGS AND THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL HANG ON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS, HIGHEST SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE RIVER/LAKE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL ON ANY GIVEN NIGHT
WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT, AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
LATE NIGHT INTO THE HOURS SURROUNDING DAYBREAK.
MARINE
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL BUILD
ACROSS QUEBEC AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
FAIRLY BRISK FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK THAT
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY OVER TIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF BOTH LAKES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SODUS BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER. SCAS WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO
THE NIAGARA RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE
EASTERLY. ANY LINGERING SCA-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND
RESULTS IN A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
REGION...ALONG WITH A COMMENSURATE LOWERING OF WINDS AND WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ001-
002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ003-
004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...HSK/JJR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page