147
FXUS61 KBUF 221026
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
626 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH
TONIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER THROUGH TONIGHT, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE BULK OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA...WHILE A
DEVELOPING MODEST CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DRAPED FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT.
GIVEN THE ABOVE PATTERN EVOLUTION...ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL LIE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
AT TIMES NEAR THE PA BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT/VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW CAPTURES THIS SYSTEM AND DRAWS
IT FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE THE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH AND INITIALLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP OUR
REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY RIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL SYSTEM
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST.
OTHERWISE A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY SLOWLY WARMING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS OUR INITIALLY COOL AIRMASS GRADUALLY
MODIFIES. CONSEQUENTLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S (LOWER ELEVATIONS)
TODAY WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL/SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL REMAIN LARGELY BELOW NORMAL (MOSTLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S) THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME UPPER 30S LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...AND ALSO NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. COUPLED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SUCH READINGS MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...
THOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SUCH FOR TONIGHT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
FAR TOO LOW FOR ANY ADVISORY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS WE MOVE THROUGH TODAY...INCREASING DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL HELP
TO BREAK UP ANY PATCHY EARLY MORNING MVFR/LOW VFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...WITH
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CIRRUS/DIURNAL CUMULUS OTHERWISE
PREVAILING NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS ALSO MIXED IN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH THIS CAPTURING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND
PULLING IT WESTWARD INTO OHIO. CONSEQUENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD DECREASE AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING
SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR...WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING THEN POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG WHERE
WINDS MANAGE TO LIGHTEN ENOUGH. CURRENTLY...EXPECT ANY SUCH FOG TO
REMAIN AWAY FROM THE KJHW TERMINAL. OTHERWISE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RIVER/LAKE VALLEY FOG AND LOCAL IFR POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT, AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY.
MARINE
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL BUILD
ACROSS QUEBEC AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHILE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
FAIRLY BRISK FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK THAT
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY OVER TIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF BOTH LAKES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER. SCAS WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO
THE NIAGARA RIVER BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY. ANY
LINGERING SCA-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND RESULTS IN A
WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH A
COMMENSURATE LOWERING OF WINDS AND WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ001-
002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ003-
004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HSK/JJR
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