977
FXUS61 KBUF 221824
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THOUGH THE WORK WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA LINE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE 40S,
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A LIGHT GRADIENT WIND IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP AREAS OF FROST FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY, HOWEVER CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY FROST IN AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES, MAINLY ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN FAR SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG HILL
REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, WHICH MAY
WARREN FROST HEADLINES. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DAY TO DAY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME LESS THAN 6KTS AWAY FROM THE LAKES TONIGHT, THEN
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER, AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KIAG, BUF, AND KJHW. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MAY RESULT IN
REDUCED VISIBILITY, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT IT WILL
IMPACT KJHW.
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RIVER/LAKE VALLEY FOG AND LOCAL IFR POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT, AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY.
SUNDAY...MOSTLY DRY. VFR.
MARINE
A MODERATE TO FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST-EAST WIND ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NEARSHORE SECTION FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER.
SCAS WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO THE
NIAGARA RIVER BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY. ANY
LINGERING SCA-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND RESULTS IN A
WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH A
COMMENSURATE LOWERING OF WINDS AND WAVE ACTION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ001-
002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ003-
004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JJR
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