529
FXUS61 KBUF 230601
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
201 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THOUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER, WHICH WILL BRING SOME PATCHY FROST. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DAY TO DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/THURS AS A
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QC CONTINUES TO AFFECT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TAPPING INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW THESE WINDS TO
GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN ~15Z/WED AND ~22Z/WED. NOTE:
CONSIDERABLY CLEAR SKY, WEAK SURFACE WINDS, AND EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL
COOLING SHOULD YIELD LOCALIZED STEAM MIST/FOG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO
LIFR IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND IN THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH-CENTRAL NY BETWEEN ~07Z/WED AND
~13Z/WED. WINDS INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY WITH HEIGHT IN THE SURFACE
TO 2KFT AGL LAYER SHOULD CAUSE THIS MIST/FOG TO BE SHALLOW AND
PREVENT THE MIST/FOG FROM IMPACTING KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER AND VFR
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY MIST/FOG AND RESULTING
MVFR TO LIFR ARE POSSIBLE AT AND AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, INLAND FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR WORSE ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE GENESEE RIVER.
MARINE
A MODERATE TO FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST-EAST WIND ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NEARSHORE SECTION FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER.
SCAS WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO THE
NIAGARA RIVER TODAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY. ANY LINGERING
SCA-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
REGION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ003-
004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ043.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...TMA
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