573
FXUS61 KBUF 231700
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST TO OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THOUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER, WHICH WILL BRING SOME PATCHY FROST. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DAY TO DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AND EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME PATCHY
FOG/MIST AT KJHW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG WILL BE FURTHER INLAND AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 8 TO 14 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT WESTERN TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG AT INLAND
LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS. NON- VFR IS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE GENESEE RIVER DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.
MARINE
A MODERATE TO FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST-EAST WIND ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NEARSHORE SECTION FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER.
SCAS WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO THE
NIAGARA RIVER TODAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE EASTERLY. ANY LINGERING
SCA-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
REGION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...TMA
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