173
FXUS61 KBUF 231745
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
145 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE EAST COAST, A
COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK. OVERALL, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WHERE DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME
PATCHY FROST. OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DAY TO DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AND EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME PATCHY
FOG/MIST AT KJHW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG WILL BE FURTHER INLAND AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 8 TO 14 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT WESTERN TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG AT INLAND
LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS. NON- VFR IS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE GENESEE RIVER DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.
MARINE
A MODERATE TO FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST-EAST WIND ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NEARSHORE SECTION FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO AREAS
FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO THE NIAGARA RIVER TODAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE
EASTERLY. ANY LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND
WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
DISCUSSION...EAL
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...EAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page