247
FXUS61 KBUF 232300
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
700 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE EAST COAST, A
COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK. OVERALL, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WHERE DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME
PATCHY FROST. OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DAY TO DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/FRI AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN QC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND A RIDGE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS TREND NE'ERLY TO SE'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE
CALM AT TIMES FROM ~06Z/THURS THROUGH ~12Z/THURS, ESPECIALLY IN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.
NOTE: CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR SKY, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS,
AND EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD YIELD LOCALIZED STEAM
MIST/FOG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LIFR IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN ~06Z/THURS AND ~13Z/THURS. WINDS
INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY WITH HEIGHT IN THE SURFACE TO 2KFT AGL
LAYER AND RESULTING MECHANICAL MIXING IN THAT ATMOSPHERIC LAYER
SHOULD CAUSE THE MIST/FOG TO BE SHALLOW AND PREVENT THE MIST/FOG
FROM IMPACTING KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY MIST/FOG AND RESULTING
MVFR TO LIFR ARE POSSIBLE AT AND AROUND DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, INLAND FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR WORSE ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY.
MARINE
A MODERATE TO FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST-EAST WIND ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NEARSHORE SECTION FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO AREAS
FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO THE NIAGARA RIVER TODAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE
EASTERLY. ANY LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND
WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
DISCUSSION...EAL
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...EAL
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