565
FXUS61 KBUF 240243
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WITH OUR LATE EVENING UPDATE. PLEASE SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE UPDATED DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT TIMES.
GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE EAST COAST, A
COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK. OVERALL, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WHERE DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT, CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR SKY, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS,
AND LOW HUMIDITY AT/NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30'S ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
TUG HILL REGION AND VICINITY. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED AT AND
AROUND DAYBREAK ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU, WESTERN ADIRONDACKS,
AND VICINITY. OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40'S TO 50F ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN OUR CWA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DAY TO DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/FRI AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN QC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND A RIDGE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS TREND NE'ERLY TO SE'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE
CALM AT TIMES FROM ~06Z/THURS THROUGH ~12Z/THURS, ESPECIALLY IN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.
NOTE: CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR SKY, WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS,
AND EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD YIELD LOCALIZED STEAM
MIST/FOG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LIFR IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN ~06Z/THURS AND ~13Z/THURS. WINDS
INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY WITH HEIGHT IN THE SURFACE TO 2KFT AGL
LAYER AND RESULTING MECHANICAL MIXING IN THAT ATMOSPHERIC LAYER
SHOULD CAUSE THE MIST/FOG TO BE SHALLOW AND PREVENT THE MIST/FOG
FROM IMPACTING KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY MIST/FOG AND RESULTING
MVFR TO LIFR ARE POSSIBLE AT AND AROUND DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, INLAND FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR WORSE ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY.
MARINE
A MODERATE TO FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST-EAST WIND ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NEARSHORE SECTION FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO AREAS
FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO THE NIAGARA RIVER TODAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE
EASTERLY. ANY LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND
WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
DISCUSSION...EAL/JASZKA
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...EAL
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