360
FXUS61 KBUF 240540
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
140 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER AND
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD MORE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW MATURES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
COOL HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC EXTENDS A RIDGE
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD
YIELD LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG FROM 06Z THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.
WINDS INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY WITH HEIGHT IN THE SURFACE TO 2KFT AGL
LAYER AND RESULTING MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD CAUSE THE FOG TO BE
SHALLOW AND PREVENT THE FOG FROM IMPACTING KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY MIST/FOG AND RESULTING MVFR TO
LIFR ARE POSSIBLE AT AND AROUND DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, INLAND FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR WORSE ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY.
MARINE
A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SPEEDS LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS, BUT CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES INCREASES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND FROM
ROCHESTER TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
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