802
FXUS65 KBYZ 182121
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
221 PM MST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
- SURFACES WILL BECOME SLIPPERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY, MT AND SHERIDAN COUNTY, WY
AS SNOW FALLS AND TEMPERATURES DROP.
- NORTHWEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST MT WILL GUST TO 40-50 MPH TUESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH LATE WEEK PATTERN CHANGE. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A COLD AND WET SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
A TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE, THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND UP TO FOUR INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. QPF AMOUNTS OF
A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO SEVERAL TENTHS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS, BIGHORNS,
AND THEIR FOOTHILLS. A STRONG BAND OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
UPSLOPE FLOW IS SETUP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE PARADISE
VALLEY, PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BAND HAS
BOOSTED SNOWFALL, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED. ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN BIGHORNS, A BAND OF 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S AND RAIN HAS BEGUN TO CHANGE TO SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, SUCH AS BILLINGS, WILL REMAIN
LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN 0.5" OF SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST.
FOR THOSE COMMUTING THIS EVENING, PREPARE FOR SLICK ROADS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WHERE THERE ARE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP INTO THE 30S MPH. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS,
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FAR EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND
20S.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRONG NW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH IN THE FAR EAST, INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20F.
MATOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER FAR SE MT ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 40S MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
ENERGY ADVECTING INTO WESTERN AREAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AT TIMES, GREATEST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS (30-60%). HEADING INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND, THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY, BUT IN GENERAL,
ENSEMBLES SHOW A COOLER PATTERN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY, WARMING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 40S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY, COOLEST OVER THE NORTH. STP
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS,
WITH LOCAL VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED IN SNOW. WINDS WILL BECOME NW WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. ALL
LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR BY 06Z. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/040 019/039 024/045 025/039 026/042 022/033 014/036
20/U 00/U 01/E 22/J 13/W 43/J 11/B
LVM 015/035 014/043 030/049 032/051 031/050 023/041 017/038
21/B 01/N 23/W 63/W 35/W 64/J 21/B
HDN 023/041 017/039 020/044 022/041 023/042 019/033 012/036
41/N 00/U 01/B 22/W 13/W 44/J 21/B
MLS 026/038 019/036 017/039 021/036 021/040 018/029 009/030
21/N 00/U 00/B 12/J 12/W 32/J 11/B
4BQ 026/038 021/037 018/045 023/041 024/045 021/033 013/034
51/N 00/U 00/B 00/E 11/E 22/J 11/B
BHK 022/036 015/034 010/040 016/036 017/038 015/031 008/032
52/J 00/N 00/B 01/E 12/J 22/J 11/B
SHR 017/038 014/040 019/049 023/049 026/049 020/037 014/040
91/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W 34/J 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 56-64-66.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 138-171.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 198-199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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