871
FXUS65 KBYZ 192201
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
301 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.
- BLOWING SNOW MAY IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE AROUND BAKER,
MONTANA.
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH LATE WEEK PATTERN CHANGE. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A COLD AND WET SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE WINDY CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF AROUND AND WEST OF BILLINGS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL
HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT EAST OF BILLINGS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN FAR EASTERN
MONTANA, HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN FALLON AND CARTER COUNTY. IN
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTY, WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE
UPPER 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE ARE FORECAST, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS WILL LIKELY START TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON HOW LONG THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY, THESE
WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH- PROFILE
VEHICLES, THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA.
BECAUSE OF THIS, THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
COUNTIES THROUGH 3 PM MST WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE WIND, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURING THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND BAKER, MT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO ARE CREATING
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, PER WEBCAMS. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE CHANCE OF SNOW
INCREASES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN (15-40 PERCENT
CHANCE). ARENDS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO OVER AND NEAR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY AS WSW FLOW BECOMES MORE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. HIGHEST CHANCES OF AROUND 50% WILL BE IN THE SW MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY, AND
BOTH DAYS WILL HAVE SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE AFFECT THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH 50-70% POPS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LESSER CHANCES OVER KSHR AND FAR SE MT. HIGHS REMAIN IN
THE 40S ON SAT., BUT ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF A MAX TEMP OF 32 OR LOWER
ON SUN. IS 55% IN KBIL, 69% IN KMLS AND 76% IN KBHK. KBIL HAD A
30% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2 IN. OF SNOW FROM SAT. NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THAT BEING SAID, TEMPERATURE SPREAD AND QPF SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLES INCREASES FOR THIS PERIOD, ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST.
ENSEMBLES DIFFER REGARDING MONDAY'S PATTERN AND SHOW EITHER A
TROUGH OR A RIDGE. FORECAST WAS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.
ON TUESDAY, A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY
FOR NOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. ARTHUR
AVIATION
INCREASED WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA
AROUND KBHK AND K97M, WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS ARE FORECAST.
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA, WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 KTS ARE
FORECAST. WHILE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND NIGHT AROUND
AND WEST OF KBIL, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST
OF KBIL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST, HOLDING ON AT KBHK AND K97M THE LONGEST.
WITH THE WIND, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE REDUCING VISIBILITY AT KBHK
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS THE CHANCE OF SNOW DROPS OFF. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/038 023/045 027/046 028/046 022/030 016/034 018/037
00/U 00/B 11/B 13/O 54/S 21/B 11/B
LVM 013/042 029/050 033/055 035/052 022/037 017/038 018/038
00/U 13/R 42/R 36/R 74/S 31/B 22/S
HDN 018/039 019/045 024/045 025/045 020/031 012/035 014/036
00/U 00/B 11/B 13/R 55/S 31/B 12/S
MLS 021/036 015/040 021/040 022/041 018/027 011/031 011/032
00/U 00/B 01/E 02/R 33/S 11/B 01/B
4BQ 021/037 018/046 024/047 026/048 022/031 014/035 015/035
00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 23/S 21/B 01/B
BHK 016/032 009/040 017/039 018/038 015/031 009/033 010/033
30/N 00/B 00/E 01/E 22/S 11/B 01/B
SHR 013/039 017/051 026/055 029/054 020/035 013/038 014/038
00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 45/S 31/B 12/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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