027
FXUS65 KBYZ 152126
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
226 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE COMING TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-45 MPH ACROSS THE
REGION, STRONGEST IN THE WEST AND OVER THE HIGHER HILLS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TONIGHT WILL SEE PRECIPITATION EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 30S MPH IN FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20S F ACROSS THE REGION.
TOMORROW WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE WEATHER SYSTEM
EXITING AND THE ONE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S F.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LATE
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS (40-60%) IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS
OPPOSED TO THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM, THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW.
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION. TORGERSON
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BACK AND FORTH PERIOD FROM LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO SLIGHT WARMING IS
THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
STARTING THE GAME OFF IS A WAVE PASSING THROUGH AND ALLOWING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SET UP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO SEE ITS PRECIP TYPE OF SNOW,
THOUGH AMOUNTS WITH GENERALLY BE LIGHT, WITH ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MT TO GET AT LEAST AN INCH
OF SNOW (90% IN THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ON WEST FACING SLOPES). ONLY
MINOR WINTER IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEEK WE SEE A RIDGE BUILD OVER THE STATE AND A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MT, INCREASING
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FROM LIVINGSTON AND NORTH THROUGH
HARLOWTON. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO
REACH AT LEAST 50 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO CRASH OVER THE AREA, EXTENDING
BREEZY WINDS OUT OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA (GUSTS
30-40 MPH). THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.
THE WEEKEND SEE A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THAT SAID, UNCERTAINLY LIES WITH HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE
WILL GET TO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TWO EASILY SEEN OUTCOMES ARE
THE RIDGE MOVING FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MT SEES WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE OTHER OUTCOME IS
THE RIDGE STAYING FURTHER WEST, WHICH WOULD KEEP FAR EASTERN
MONTANA UNDER MORE CYCLONIC FLOW, ALLOWING A PUSH OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF EITHER OUTCOME, NO HUGE WINTER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
VERTZ
AVIATION
TONIGHT WILL SEE PRECIPITATION EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS. SNOW AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS WITH WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 30S KTS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE (50%)
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS IN THE EAST SUCH AS
KBHK. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL SEE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 023/038 023/038 023/046 030/046 028/049 029/050 031/052
01/B 42/S 10/B 10/U 00/B 00/B 00/B
LVM 021/039 026/041 028/049 033/049 031/053 033/054 033/051
04/J 73/S 11/N 10/N 00/B 00/B 11/B
HDN 022/039 023/037 020/046 027/044 021/047 023/047 025/050
00/B 53/S 10/B 10/U 00/B 00/U 00/B
MLS 023/033 020/029 014/036 021/034 015/037 016/037 021/042
10/U 32/S 11/E 10/B 00/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 023/035 022/034 018/042 025/039 020/043 021/043 025/046
10/U 21/B 10/B 10/B 00/B 00/B 00/B
BHK 018/030 013/027 010/033 017/032 008/033 011/032 015/037
20/U 12/S 10/E 10/N 00/B 00/B 00/B
SHR 017/040 018/040 018/050 026/047 023/053 027/055 028/053
00/U 22/S 10/B 10/U 00/B 00/U 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-36-37.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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