836
FXUS65 KBYZ 171413
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
713 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, LINGERING
LONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST MT.
- PERIOD OF INCREASED TO STRONG WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, FIRST OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THEN OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, LINGERING OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER
20S OVER THE NORTHEAST. BRIEF RIDGING AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER AREAS FROM ROUNDUP TO
BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN AND AREAS EAST TONIGHT.
WINDS BEGIN INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THE IDAHO FALLS TO LEWISTOWN GRADIENT INCREASES TOWARDS
20 MB ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40-70 KTS,
STRONGEST OVER NW AREAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO MT, GUSTY TO
STRONG WINDS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM.
LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH RANGE FROM
60-100% OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY, WIND
GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE, WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH FROM BIG TIMBER NORTH THROUGH JUDITH GAP.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA, WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR GREATER HIGHEST
FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS. HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS AND A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR AREAS FROM BIG TIMBER NORTH, AND ADDED IN GOLDEN
VALLEY AND NORTHERN STILLWATER ZONES.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (20% CHANCE) AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MT INTO NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT AND SPOTTY IF THE SHOWERS OCCUR. W TO NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY WENDESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. STP
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STRONG WINDS WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY, HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA FROM BAKER
TO ALZADA. BEHIND THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE TEENS TO 20S IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND 30S AND 40S OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THURSDAY. AFTER THIS, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME, THERE IS A MODERATE
TO HIGH CHANCE OF SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 50 DEGF OR MORE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA EACH DAY. WHILE FAR EASTERN MONTANA
WILL REMAIN COOLER, TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WHILE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE A FEW
MEMBERS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES THAT PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AROUND BAKER FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR SOME TYPE OF
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IN THE ENSEMBLES. WITH THIS, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST (10-40 PERCENT CHANCE,
HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS). A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH, AND THE PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN
THE ENSEMBLES IS LOW AT THIS TIME. AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK, THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE. ARENDS
AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A DISTURBANCE PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW
SLIDES EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMLS AND KBHK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO SNOW AND LOWER STRATUS. PATCHY FOG MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE VSBYS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR AREAS FROM KBIL TO KSHR
AND EAST. SW TO W WINDS BEGIN INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS TONIGHT, WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE AT
KLVM. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037 021/049 029/043 026/052 031/050 034/052 030/050
1/B 11/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/R 00/B
LVM 040 026/049 029/048 030/052 034/054 036/050 030/049
1/B 12/R 10/N 00/B 00/B 12/O 01/B
HDN 036 018/049 023/039 021/050 024/049 027/051 026/049
2/S 11/E 10/U 00/B 00/B 12/O 01/B
MLS 029 013/041 011/022 010/040 018/038 021/043 025/043
6/S 12/O 20/U 01/B 00/B 02/R 10/B
4BQ 034 017/044 020/032 017/047 023/045 026/047 028/047
3/S 10/B 20/U 00/B 00/B 02/R 10/B
BHK 027 008/038 006/018 003/036 014/034 018/038 020/040
5/S 11/E 30/N 00/B 00/B 01/B 10/B
SHR 036 016/052 024/043 022/055 026/054 029/052 025/051
2/S 00/B 10/U 00/B 00/B 02/O 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 34-42-63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 65-66. WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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