631
FXUS65 KBYZ 181046
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
346 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIOD OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
FIRST OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THEN OVER THE PLAINS.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
MORNING, SPREADING TO THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING AND NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) FOR FREEZING RAIN.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
BUSY SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING
GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND AND EVEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A QUICK-HITTING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WERE FOUND OVER NORTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SW-W WINDS PUSH EAST. LIGHT SNOW IS ONGOING IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE,
AND A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON SW-W ASPECTS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PROG THE
IDAHO FALLS TO LEWISTOWN GRADIENT TO APPROACH 20 MB TODAY. THIS,
COMBINED WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40-70 KTS WILL ALLOW FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 70-75 MPH AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. THE SW-NE ORIENTED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR LIVINGSTON WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A W-E
ORIENTATION THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH BIG TIMBER TO JUDITH GAP, CONTINUING
EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HWY 191 CORRIDOR. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER.
LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR GREATER REMAIN
HIGHEST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (60-100%), WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE EAST REMAINS NEAR 50%. HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND
WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MUSSELSHELL AND SOUTHWESTERN
YELLOWSTONE COUNTY (BILLINGS), WITH LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
NUDGE WINDS HIGHER IN THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FAR EAST FOR THIS EVENING AND NIGHT AS PRESSURE RISES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY
HAVE WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR FALLON AND
CARTER COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT WIND HIGHLITES REMAIN IN
GOOD SHAPE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT.
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MUSSELSHELL, FAR NE YELLOWSTONE, TREASURE, NORTHERN ROSEBUD AND
NORTHERN CUSTER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
(LESS THAN 20%) FOR THE FREEZING RAIN. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES (15-30%)
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF NOW, THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN LOOKS
TO REMAIN EAST OF FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. COOL CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP EASTERN AREAS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S OVER THE WEST. STP
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WARM CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND SHERIDAN,
COUNTY WYOMING, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY. EVEN WITH THERE BEING A HIGH CHANCE OF
SEEING 50 DEGF AT LEAST ONCE AT BILLINGS, LIVINGSTON, AND SHERIDAN
DURING THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. IN EASTERN MONTANA, AROUND MILES CITY, BAKER, AND
ALZADA, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AS FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, THE TWO MAIN DAYS TO WATCH
ARE SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AS WELL, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED
TO THE MOUNTAINS THAT DAY. FOR THE SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY WEATHER
SYSTEMS, UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WAVES STILL EXIST.
BECAUSE OF THIS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL (AMOUNT) FORECASTS. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST THOUGH, THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS RAIN.
OVER THE HIGHER HILLS, A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE (50/50 CHANCE).
LUCKILY, ALL SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THESE
SYSTEMS. WITH THAT SAID, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE A
MODERATE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE
PERIOD OF DECEMBER 25TH THROUGH THE 31ST, WHICH INCLUDES THE
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. ARENDS
AVIATION
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PRODUCING MVFR TO LOCAL VLIFR
CONDITIONS OVER AND AREAS EAST OF K3HT TO KBIL AND K00U WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SW SURFACE WINDS
SPREAD EAST. SW TO W WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 50-65 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KLVM TO K6S0
AND K3HT, WITH W-NW WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OBSCURATIONS
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND FAR
EASTERN AREAS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW
(LESS THAN 20%), THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR -FZRA LATE THIS MORNING
VC KMLS. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 030/043 025/051 031/053 036/052 030/050 030/051
1/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/R 01/B 00/B
LVM 050 029/047 030/053 033/054 035/048 032/049 032/052
2/R 00/N 00/N 00/U 22/O 02/O 11/N
HDN 048 024/039 020/047 025/050 028/052 026/049 026/050
1/E 10/U 00/B 00/B 12/O 01/B 00/B
MLS 042 011/022 010/037 019/040 024/045 025/044 024/044
2/O 20/U 00/B 00/B 02/O 00/B 00/U
4BQ 045 021/033 017/044 024/049 028/046 027/047 027/049
0/B 20/U 00/B 00/B 02/R 00/B 00/U
BHK 038 004/016 002/032 014/039 021/040 022/041 022/044
2/O 40/N 00/E 00/B 02/R 00/B 00/U
SHR 052 025/043 020/053 027/056 029/052 025/050 025/054
0/B 00/U 00/B 00/U 02/R 01/B 10/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM
MST THURSDAY FOR ZONES 29-235.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
34-42-63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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