449
FXUS65 KBYZ 200043
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
543 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING FOR THE
LIVINGSTON/NYE AREA, LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR WINDS OVER 50 MPH IN WESTERN FOOTHILLS STARTING
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EASTERN MT LAST NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ALONG THE
MT AND DAKOTAS BORDER. AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO FROM THE WEST,
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LET UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LIVINGSTON AREA. A PATTERN FOR GAP WINDS WILL
SET UP AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS AND A
SURFACE GRADIENT OF 14-16 MB FROM IDAHO FALLS TO LEWISTOWN. THIS
WILL BRING GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH A 60% CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 50
MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH ENERGY OCCASIONALLY RIDING
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR ZERO EAST TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S EAST TO MID 50S WEST. TS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE ON CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT FEATURE AT 500 MB WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BRING LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THEN A TROUGH
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE BULK OF THE TROUGH ENERGY DIVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
BUT ANTICIPATING SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. WPC
CLUSTERS LEAN TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AT 500 MB BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY MAJOR COOL DOWNS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINIMAL SPREAD (5-7 DEGREES) IN THE NBM HIGH
TEMPERATURE 25TH/75TH PERCENTILES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AT KBIL. JW
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KLVM. SW TO WSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35-46 KTS THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. TS/RMS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/052 033/054 036/052 029/048 029/049 033/046 026/044
00/B 00/B 11/B 02/R 00/B 32/O 00/B
LVM 032/054 034/054 036/047 030/047 030/051 030/043 024/043
00/N 00/B 21/N 03/O 01/N 62/O 01/N
HDN 022/049 026/052 031/052 025/048 026/049 029/047 024/044
00/B 00/B 12/R 02/R 00/B 33/O 00/B
MLS 011/039 021/047 026/046 024/044 025/044 028/043 023/040
00/B 00/U 02/O 00/B 00/U 11/B 00/B
4BQ 018/046 027/052 029/049 026/046 027/048 030/043 026/044
00/B 00/U 02/R 01/B 00/U 11/B 00/B
BHK 002/032 017/045 023/041 021/040 022/043 024/039 021/039
00/E 00/U 02/R 00/U 00/U 01/E 00/B
SHR 021/054 028/057 030/051 023/049 025/052 027/045 022/047
00/B 00/U 01/B 02/R 00/U 23/O 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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