552
FXUS65 KBYZ 201509
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
809 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 40-50 MPH IN THE LIVINGSTON/NYE AREA,
LASTING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR WINDS OVER 50 MPH IN WESTERN FOOTHILLS STARTING
SUNDAY
UPDATE
WARM W/ GUSTY FOOTHILLS WINDS ON TAP TODAY, BEHIND DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CLIPPING NORTHEAST MT. ALREADY SEEING WINDS
RESPOND AT BIG TIMBER W/ GUSTS TO 41 MPH AT 735AM. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING
SKIES, WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS AND DECENT MIXING WILL YIELD A
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, TAPERING TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL NOT QUITE REACH. TODAY IS AN OBVIOUS
"OVERACHIEVING" TEMPERATURE DAY AND HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES OVER OUR WEST. RECORDS AT LIVINGSTON, BILLINGS AND
SHERIDAN SHOULD BE APPROACHED AND COULD BE BROKEN. SEE TABLE
BELOW. JKL
SITE FORECAST RECORD
LVM 54 56 (2023)
BIL 55 58 (1941)
SHR 58 60 (2023)
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH LEE-SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS
BEEN TAKING IT'S SWEET TIME TONIGHT, IN WHAT SHOULD BE PRODUCING
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT LIVINGSTON IS KEEPING IT'S WINDS VARIABLE
(GUSTING STRONG RIGHT AT THE EXIT OF THE PARADISE VALLEY, BUT
REMAINING LIGHT IN TOWN AND JUST NORTH OF THERE. HOWEVER, IS THE
LOW PROGS FURTHER SOUTH, SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KICK IN, PROVIDING
PRESSURE GRADIENT-INDUCED WINDS TO GUST UP TO 50 MPH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR, AS BOTH REMAIN UNDER A
RIDGE AND WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS .
WINDS WILL DOWNSLOPE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ASSISTING IN GETTING
THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STAYING BREEZY, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
IMPACTFUL WINDS. TO SUM UP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY NICE (EXPECT FOR THOSE DEPRIVED OF THE SNOW AND COLD
THEY WANT DURING WINTER).
A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
WITH IT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
MORE ON THAT IN THE NEXT DISCUSSION.
VERTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WINDY FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH
LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER, AND HARLOWTON HAVING A 60% CHANCE OF
GETTING WIND GUST OVER 50MPH. WITH WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLY 700MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS DON'T
APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG WITH NBM GIVING A 20-30% CHANCE FOR A WIND
GUST OVER 40MPH. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, THE GFS IS INDICATING A
PERSISTENT IDAHO FALLS TO LEWISTOWN PRESSURE GRADIENT IN EXCESS OF
10MB. THIS WILL LEAD TO ALMOST DAILY 60% CHANCES FOR WINDS >50MPH
FOR LIVINGSTON WITH LOWER VALUES (30%) FOR BIG TIMBER AND
HARLOWTON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WITH VALUES
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE FIRST
WILL BE SUNDAY BRINGING A 10% CHANCE FOR >0.1 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO REMAIN RAIN FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS KEEPING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN US. SOME WPC CLUSTERS HAVE THIS TROUGH DIGGING FAR TO THE
SOUTH, BUT MOST HAVE MT GETTING SOME WEAKER NORTHERN ENERGY. THE
STRONGER THIS TROUGH ENDS UP BEING THE MORE PRECIPITATION THE
REGION CAN EXPECT. EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE CLUSTER AT THIS TIME
HAS <0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, THE NBM IS GIVING LOCATIONS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY A
20-30% CHANCE FOR >0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
RECEIVE RAIN. LATE NEXT WEEK THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SPLITTING
TROUGH, THOUGH LITTLE CAN BE SAID ABOUT IT AT THIS POINT.
TORGERSON
AVIATION
SW-W WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TODAY,
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS AT KLVM, K6S0 & KHWQ. GUSTS IN THESE
AREAS WILL DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 033/055 037/052 029/048 028/049 034/046 026/045
0/U 00/B 11/B 02/W 00/B 32/W 00/B
LVM 054 035/055 035/047 030/047 030/050 031/044 026/044
0/N 00/B 20/N 03/W 01/N 62/J 01/N
HDN 052 027/052 030/052 025/046 026/050 030/046 023/045
0/U 00/U 11/B 02/W 00/B 32/W 00/B
MLS 041 022/047 027/047 023/044 026/046 029/042 023/042
0/B 00/U 12/W 00/B 00/U 11/B 00/B
4BQ 047 028/053 030/049 025/047 028/050 031/044 025/045
0/B 00/U 02/W 00/B 10/U 11/B 00/B
BHK 030 018/045 025/042 020/043 023/045 025/040 020/042
0/E 00/U 02/W 00/U 00/U 01/E 00/B
SHR 058 028/058 030/051 024/048 024/052 027/045 021/047
0/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 10/U 23/W 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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