674
FXUS65 KBYZ 210210
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
710 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SW-W WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST AND OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH IS NOW OVER WESTERN MT.
NO CHANCE OF PRECIP TONIGHT, BUT THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS WILL YIELD A MILD NIGHT. OF COURSE THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER WHERE IT HAS ALREADY
REACHED THE UPPER TEENS. LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN
FAR EASTERN VALLEYS TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
SPEAKING OF THE FOOTHILLS, FAIRLY GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE NIGHT WITH THE FOCUS TURNING MORE TO THE GAP AREAS AS THE
NW MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY. LIVINGSTON AIRPORT IS
GUSTING TO 43 MPH AS OF 02Z. GUSTS COULD REACH 50 MPH AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT, WITH A 50% CHANCE, BUT MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS DO NOT
SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. IN ANY EVENT, HAVE ADJUSTED EVENING
WINDS UP SOME FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER (GUSTING TO 31 MPH),
AND TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH
POTENTIAL RECORDS COMING SATURDAY. JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WARM WEATHER WITH PERIODIC WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
IS THE THEME MOVING AHEAD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHEAST MT MOVING INTO ND, WITH DRY AIR IN
ITS WAKE OVER OUR REGION. WITHOUT ANY REAL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THIS WAVE, THE INCREASED MIXING AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE PUSHING
TEMPS UP RAPIDLY AT MIDDAY. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE UPPER
50S FROM LIVINGSTON (TODAY'S DAILY RECORD HAS BEEN BROKEN) TO
HARLOWTON, AND THE LOWER 50S AT ROUNDUP AND BILLINGS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER, EAST OF WHERE THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS REACHING.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM THROUGH
SATURDAY. IN FACT, TOMORROW LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY,
THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT (SOME UNCERTAINTY
HERE, BUT THE CHANCES OF REACHING 60F ARE NON-ZERO WEST OF ROSEBUD
COUNTY). WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
EXPECT SOME DIURNAL DECREASE TO ~35 MPH GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GAP AREAS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INCREASE TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO THE WSW AND REMAINS ON THE ORDER OF 30 KNOTS. GUSTS
SHOULD REACH 40-45 MPH AND COULD TOUCH 50 MPH AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL AND
STAND A BETTER CHANCE (75%) OF EXCEEDING 50 MPH AT LIVINGSTON AND
NYE. POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND
SEEMS TO BE 50-50 AT THIS TIME. COLD ADVECTION REDUCES THE GAP
FLOW AND ENHANCES WESTERLY GUSTS FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON
AFTER 09Z SATURDAY NIGHT.
ARRIVING PACIFIC WAVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A LITTLE
SNOW (1-2") TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BUT JUST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS (PROBABILITY OF 10-20%). CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP
PTYPE AS RAIN IN OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST, BUT THE RISK OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN NEAR INGOMAR-MILES CITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS WELL.
BELOW ARE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.
SITE FORECAST RECORD
LVM 57 57 (2023)
BIL 58 57 (1994)
SHR 60 63 (1933)
JKL
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO BRING LITTLE RELIEF. SUNDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT,
INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS AND A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
FAVOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. SUNDAY, AREAS OF
LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER THROUGH HARLOWTON WILL MOST LIKELY BE
AFFECTED. CURRENTLY, THERE IS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OF HITTING 50 MPH
AT THESE LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES LOOK TO PASS OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NO APPRECIABLE PRECIP. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN,
WITH THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN, PERIODIC GAP WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED, BUT OVERALL, NOTHING IS INDICATING PARTICULARLY STRONG
WINDS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TS
AVIATION
GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AT KLVM OUT OF THE SW TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH 30-40 KNOT GUSTS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
JKL/ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/058 038/052 029/048 028/048 035/049 028/047 031/048
00/B 00/U 02/R 00/B 31/B 00/B 11/B
LVM 038/057 039/048 032/047 028/050 031/046 028/046 030/046
00/N 20/N 03/O 01/N 51/B 01/N 22/O
HDN 027/054 031/053 025/048 025/049 031/049 024/046 027/048
00/B 01/B 02/R 10/U 32/R 00/B 11/B
MLS 021/048 027/048 023/045 026/046 030/045 023/042 025/042
00/U 12/R 01/B 10/U 11/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 025/055 032/049 025/047 028/049 032/046 026/046 027/046
00/U 01/B 01/B 10/U 11/B 00/B 11/B
BHK 016/045 025/043 021/042 023/045 026/041 021/042 023/042
00/B 02/O 00/U 00/U 01/E 00/B 00/B
SHR 028/060 030/051 023/049 024/052 028/046 023/048 025/048
00/U 00/B 02/R 10/U 22/O 00/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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