876
FXUS65 KBYZ 210938
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
238 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SW-W WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MT FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
VERY LOCALIZED GAP WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH
TONIGHT, PRODUCING GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH. THIS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
THE MORNING, BUT SLIGHTLY WEAKEN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER RIDGING IS SETTLING OVER MONTANA TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT
DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. WITH LOWS STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TONIGHT, WE ARE
LOOKING AT EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES OCCURRING TODAY, AND WHILE
SOME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, IT LOOKS TO
REMAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO ALLOW AMPLE PERIODS OF DIRECT SUNLIGHT TO
ASSIST IN MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN.
THE OTHER ASPECT BROUGHT WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS. DESPITE A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON, IT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN UP AGAIN THIS EVENING,
PROVIDING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GAP WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON
VICINITY, WITH AN 80% CHANCE FOR GUSTS HITTING AT LEAST 50 MPH. AS
WE GO INTO THE NIGHT, A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL START TO CROSS
EASTERN MT, SHIFTING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAIN AND
TURN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED. THIS
WILL SLOWLY SWITCH STRONG WINDS FROM LIVINGSTON TO THE BIG TIMBER
AND NORTH THROUGH HARLOWTON VICINITIES, WITH A 70% CHANCE FOR
THOSE AREAS HITTING GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SHORTWAVE
STAYS MOSTLY NORTH OF US, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT TO DROP A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
(MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES), AND THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHILE
IT SEEMS TO WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN MT FOR FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS
HIGHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN MT FOR IT ON SUNDAY (SEE NWS
GREAT FALLS AND GLASGOW FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION).
BELOW ARE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SITE | TODAY RECORD
----------------------
LVM | 57 57 (2023)
BIL | 58 57 (1994)
SHR | 60 63 (1933)
VERTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MONDAY, A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHT
(20%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY THE
BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS HAVING A CHANCE (20-40%) FOR GETTING >0.1
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD FALL OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE RAIN KEEPING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN US.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS HAVE
COME DOWN FROM YESTERDAY WITH VALUES ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
MONDAY SYSTEM. LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND A 10-20% CHANCE OF GETTING >0.1 INCHES. THE
BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS HAVE A 50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND FOR
GETTING >1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE RAIN FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK SIMILAR TO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LITTLE CAN BE SAID AT THIS
POINT OTHER THAN IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE IMPACTFUL WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
WINDS FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL PERIODICALLY BE STRONG DUE TO
THE GFS INDICATING A PERSISTENT IDAHO FALLS TO LEWISTOWN PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEAR 10MB. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LIVINGSTON AS
GENERALLY WEAK 700MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN CHECK FOR BIG
TIMBER AND HARLOWTON.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGH 40S IN THE WEST AND LOW 40S IN THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE TO
BREAK OUT OF THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO BE THE NEW YEAR, THOUGH
LITTLE CAN BE SAID AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN SOME SIGNALS OF A
PATTERN CHANGE. TORGERSON
AVIATION
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AT KLVM WITH GUSTS
NEAR 35KTS. THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL SEE WINDS
PICK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS BRINGING GUSTS TO THE 40S KTS
NEARING 50 KTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THESE LOCATIONS INCLUDE KLVM,
K6S0, AND KLKM. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE 24 HOURS.
TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 037/051 029/049 028/048 033/048 026/046 032/049
0/B 20/U 02/W 00/B 31/B 00/B 11/B
LVM 056 034/047 031/047 028/050 030/045 027/044 029/046
0/N 21/N 14/W 00/N 51/B 02/J 22/W
HDN 052 031/052 024/046 025/050 029/048 024/045 027/049
0/B 21/U 02/W 10/U 32/W 01/B 11/B
MLS 047 028/048 022/043 025/048 029/045 022/042 027/045
0/U 22/W 10/B 00/U 11/B 00/B 11/B
4BQ 054 033/049 025/046 028/050 031/045 025/046 028/046
0/U 11/B 00/B 10/U 11/B 00/B 11/B
BHK 046 026/043 021/043 024/045 025/041 020/042 022/042
0/B 23/W 10/U 00/U 01/E 00/B 00/B
SHR 059 030/051 023/048 024/052 027/046 021/047 024/048
0/U 10/U 01/B 10/U 22/W 00/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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