890
FXUS65 KBYZ 211558
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
858 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SW-W WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MT FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.
UPDATE
WINDS AT LIVINGSTON CONTINUE TO GUST TO 40+ MPH THIS MORNING,
WHILE THE IDA-LWT PRESSURE GRADIENT STANDS AT ~10MB. THESE WINDS
SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT W/ DIURNAL HEATING TODAY, BUT INCREASING MID
LEVEL WSW WINDS AND PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL PUSH GUSTS UP IN
THE GAP AREAS BY THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE STABILITY, GRADIENT,
AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL WIND AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE,
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA AND BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS FROM 5PM TODAY TO 8AM SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
REACHING 58+ MPH GUSTS IS 60%, AND PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
00-09Z TIME FRAME (BUT WILL ALSO COVER A FEW HOURS OF POST-FRONTAL
WIND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING). OTHER THAN WIND, IT WILL BE DRY AND
WARM TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE BROKEN RECORDS AT LIVINGSTON,
BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN. HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS A POTENTIAL ISSUE W/
REGARD TO TODAY'S TEMPERATURES, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF SUNNY AREAS AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY. HAVE
RAISED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEST HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE IT BEING THE WINTER SOLSTICE WE WILL SEE
SOME PLACES REACH 60F TODAY. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
VERY LOCALIZED GAP WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH
TONIGHT, PRODUCING GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH. THIS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
THE MORNING, BUT SLIGHTLY WEAKEN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER RIDGING IS SETTLING OVER MONTANA TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT
DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. WITH LOWS STAYING RELATIVELY WARM TONIGHT, WE ARE
LOOKING AT EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES OCCURRING TODAY, AND WHILE
SOME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, IT LOOKS TO
REMAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH TO ALLOW AMPLE PERIODS OF DIRECT SUNLIGHT TO
ASSIST IN MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN.
THE OTHER ASPECT BROUGHT WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS. DESPITE A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON, IT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN UP AGAIN THIS EVENING,
PROVIDING YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF GAP WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON
VICINITY, WITH AN 80% CHANCE FOR GUSTS HITTING AT LEAST 50 MPH. AS
WE GO INTO THE NIGHT, A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL START TO CROSS
EASTERN MT, SHIFTING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAIN AND
TURN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED. THIS
WILL SLOWLY SWITCH STRONG WINDS FROM LIVINGSTON TO THE BIG TIMBER
AND NORTH THROUGH HARLOWTON VICINITIES, WITH A 70% CHANCE FOR
THOSE AREAS HITTING GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SHORTWAVE
STAYS MOSTLY NORTH OF US, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
PRESENT TO DROP A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
(MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES), AND THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHILE
IT SEEMS TO WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN MT FOR FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS
HIGHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN MT FOR IT ON SUNDAY (SEE NWS
GREAT FALLS AND GLASGOW FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION).
BELOW ARE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SITE | TODAY RECORD
----------------------
LVM | 57 57 (2023)
BIL | 58 57 (1994)
SHR | 61 63 (1933)
VERTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MONDAY, A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHT
(20%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY THE
BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS HAVING A CHANCE (20-40%) FOR GETTING >0.1
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD FALL OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE RAIN KEEPING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN US.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS HAVE
COME DOWN FROM YESTERDAY WITH VALUES ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
MONDAY SYSTEM. LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND A 10-20% CHANCE OF GETTING >0.1 INCHES. THE
BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS HAVE A 50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND FOR
GETTING >1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE RAIN FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK SIMILAR TO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LITTLE CAN BE SAID AT THIS
POINT OTHER THAN IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE IMPACTFUL WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY FAR TO OUR SOUTH.
WINDS FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL PERIODICALLY BE STRONG DUE TO
THE GFS INDICATING A PERSISTENT IDAHO FALLS TO LEWISTOWN PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEAR 10MB. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LIVINGSTON AS
GENERALLY WEAK 700MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN CHECK FOR BIG
TIMBER AND HARLOWTON.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
HIGH 40S IN THE WEST AND LOW 40S IN THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE TO
BREAK OUT OF THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO BE THE NEW YEAR, THOUGH
LITTLE CAN BE SAID AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN SOME SIGNALS OF A
PATTERN CHANGE. TORGERSON
AVIATION
EXPECT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AT KLVM TODAY, INCREASING TO 45-50 KNOTS
THIS EVENING TO EARLY SUNDAY (CHANCE OF REACHING 50 KNOTS IS 60%).
OTHER WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS SUCH AS K6S0 AND KHWQ WILL SEE
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AREAS EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL SEE GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058 039/051 029/049 028/048 033/048 026/046 032/049
0/B 10/N 02/W 00/B 31/B 00/B 11/B
LVM 057 038/047 031/047 028/050 030/045 027/044 029/046
0/N 21/N 14/W 00/N 51/B 02/J 22/W
HDN 057 031/052 024/046 025/050 029/048 024/045 027/049
0/U 11/U 02/W 10/U 32/W 01/B 11/B
MLS 049 028/048 022/043 025/048 029/045 022/042 027/045
0/U 12/W 10/B 00/U 11/B 00/B 11/B
4BQ 055 033/049 025/046 028/050 031/045 025/046 028/046
0/U 01/B 00/B 10/U 11/B 00/B 11/B
BHK 046 026/043 021/043 024/045 025/041 020/042 022/042
0/U 03/W 10/U 00/U 01/E 00/B 00/B
SHR 061 031/051 023/048 024/052 027/046 021/047 024/048
0/U 00/U 01/B 10/U 22/W 00/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page