594
FXUS65 KBYZ 281513
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
913 AM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION (0.25 - 0.5 INCHES) AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATION, HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
(25-50%) FOR GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EASTWARD-MOVING
AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST MT THIS MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO MOSTLY END BY MIDDAY, AND MOST OF THE
REGION WILL BE DRY UNDERNEATH BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN, A FEATURE THAT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE ASCENT TO OUR WEST BY EVENING.
ALONG WITH DEEPENING UPSLOPE EAST WINDS, THIS SHOULD YIELD A HIGH
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS, ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS AND WHEATLAND. PLACES LIKE MELVILLE (EAST
SIDE OF CRAZY MTNS) COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT
AND THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT CONTINUING TO BACK
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. AS OF 15Z, NORTH WINDS HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH HARLOWTON & MELVILLE, AND EASTERLY WINDS ARE AS FAR WEST
AS REED POINT ALREADY. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS/TEMPS
TODAY, WITH THE N-E WINDS BRINGING A BIT MORE COOLING THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TEMP IS ACTUALLY DOWN TO 36F AT MILES CITY,
AFTER REACHING 82F YESTERDAY. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. WE ARE SEEING
SOME LOWER CLOUD (1-1.5KFT AGL CEILINGS) ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST MT
THIS MORNING.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONT,
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-EAST
THIS AFTERNOON, SETTING UP A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY STAY AS RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S TONIGHT, SO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE HIGHER HILLS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S, ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS AMPLE QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS SEEING 0.10 TO 0.50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THE LOWEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND EASTERN AREAS, INCLUDING MILES CITY AND BAKER. AS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF
0.50 TO 0.80 INCHES. ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD QPF, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW TENTHS TO A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE. WITH THE RECENT WARMTH, ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE CRAZIES. AS FOR THE
FOOTHILLS, 2-6 INCHES ARE IN THE LATEST FORECAST, THOUGH LATEST
CROSS SECTIONS FROM DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE FOOTHILLS.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, THERE STILL EXISTS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY SNOWFALL IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
MATOS
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW (40-80%
CHANCE) WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY, GREATEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
DECREASES SUNDAY EVENING AS A WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST, AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. RIDGING ON MONDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE THEN LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES (40-80%, GREATEST OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WEST) FOR TUESDAY. CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS AROUND 20-70% OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS, GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLES PROG DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RIDGING, BEFORE YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES ON SUNDAY, WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. STP
AVIATION
AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF KBIL SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY
~18Z. THERE IS ALSO SOME LOW CLOUD SPREADING SOUTHWARD THRU
EASTERN MT, AND THIS WILL AFFECT KMLS-KBHK WITH MVFR CIGS THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, W/ OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TONIGHT, EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ALONG WITH
LOWER CEILINGS AND PERHAPS FOG, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
TONIGHT, WITH ALL TAF SITES POTENTIALLY IMPACTED (THOUGH THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE). EXPECT MOUNTAINS
TO BECOME FREQUENTLY OBSCURED AFTER SUNSET. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059 037/045 032/039 029/054 034/051 033/053 032/055
1/B 56/W 77/O 13/R 46/O 43/O 22/R
LVM 059 036/048 031/039 028/052 031/044 028/045 029/048
2/W 68/W 86/S 16/O 67/O 43/S 23/O
HDN 059 035/045 029/040 027/055 031/051 030/053 030/056
1/B 67/W 77/O 12/R 46/R 44/O 22/R
MLS 055 030/040 028/039 027/050 031/048 030/051 031/054
2/W 26/W 44/S 10/B 34/O 32/O 11/B
4BQ 060 034/038 028/036 025/047 031/046 030/047 030/053
2/W 58/W 56/S 10/B 34/O 43/O 21/B
BHK 054 025/037 022/036 022/042 026/043 026/045 027/051
3/W 16/W 54/S 20/B 34/O 43/S 21/B
SHR 061 035/044 027/039 024/053 028/046 027/048 025/051
2/W 77/W 78/O 12/R 37/O 55/O 23/R
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page