281
FXUS65 KBYZ 291451
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER & WETTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW; GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS IS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE (25-75%) FOR GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
HAVE ADDED THE LIVINGSTON AREA TO OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
IN OUR WEST, BEGINNING AT 6PM THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH MOVING FROM
NORTHEAST CO INTO NE, AND AN UPSTREAM WAVE MOVING FROM WA/OR INTO
ID. THE FORMER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW (W/ A DUSTING
OF ACCUMULATION PER WEB CAMERAS) OVER SOUTHEAST MT. THE LATTER
WILL BRING US SOME WET SNOW TONIGHT & SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE IN A LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH WEAK FORCING, THERE IS
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PRODUCING SHALLOW LIGHT RAIN &
SNOW FROM WHEATLAND/MUSSELSHELL INTO WESTERN YELLOWSTONE
COUNTIES. THE BILLINGS AIRPORT HAS RECENTLY DROPPED TO 32F AND IS
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. THE FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A MORE UNIFORM EASTERLY, BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO COOLED MORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MID 20S EAST TO MID 30S WEST AS OF
845AM. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF THICK/LOW CLOUD
COVER, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY AND WILL PROBABLY NOT
RISE ABOVE THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX AND TEMPS. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS MOVING OUT OF THE REGION TODAY, AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A SERIES OF FRONTS CAME THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 30S AND 40S TODAY AND SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED BETWEEN SHERIDAN COUNTY AND NORTHERN
ROSEBUD COUNTY, THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADAR AND MELTING LAYER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THIS BAND, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME
SMALL GRAUPEL.
IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES, HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING
CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM SUNDAY. THE SOUTH FORK SHIELDS SNOTEL ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CRAZIES HAS REPORTED 0.3 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT SO FAR. A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS ALSO BEEN ONGOING FOR
IN THE MELVILLE FOOTHILLS, NORTHERN SWEETGRASS, AND WHEATLAND
COUNTIES, WHERE A A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN
RECORDED BY MONTANA MESONET SITES. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, WITH DAY TIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE AHEAD OF TWO WAVES
(ONE THIS AFTERNOON AND ONE EARLY SUNDAY). WITH THE FIRST WAVE,
THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP WILL BE THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS, INTO
THE EASTERN ZONES, WHILE THE WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE A TRANSITION
TO MOSTLY SNOW TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY WILL BRING A
HIGH CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
BE MODERATE TO HIGH MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
AS A RESULT OF THE MENTIONED TRANSITION TO SNOW, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE
FOOTHILLS, NORTHERN SWEETGRASS, AND WHEATLAND COUNTY. AMOUNTS FOR
THESE ADVISORIES VARY, WITH 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND AND 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SWEETGRASS AND WHEATLAND
COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MELVILLE FOOTHILLS
CONTINUES UNTIL 6PM SUNDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING, AS WELL AS LOW VALLEYS IN THE PLAINS WHERE SHOWERS
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION
INTO MONDAY.
MATOS
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO POINT TO AN ACTIVE LONG
TERM, WITH LOWER HEIGHTS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE WEST WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO WESTERN AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE FORECAST
TO LIFT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES (40-90%) SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHEAST MT AS THE WAVE
EVENTUALLY WRAPS UP INTO A LOW OVER NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST SD.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.10 INCHES TO 0.50
INCHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY, THE NBM HAS A PROBABILITY OF 25-75% OF
EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE TIMEFRAME,
GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS EQUATES TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
HIGHEST HILLS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PROBABILITY OF
GETTING 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS IS CURRENTLY
40-70%, GREATEST OVER THE BIGHORNS. ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST ALLOWING FOR DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S MOST DAYS. STP
AVIATION
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW, LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALIZED FOG, WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POOR FLYING WEATHER TODAY (MVFR TO LIFR).
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF MOSTLY WET SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, ALLOWING
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041 031/040 030/056 035/048 035/052 031/053 032/048
6/O 37/O 14/R 57/O 43/O 13/R 23/O
LVM 046 031/040 030/051 033/042 028/045 028/048 028/045
4/R 76/O 26/O 67/S 32/S 23/S 33/S
HDN 042 030/041 027/058 033/048 032/052 028/055 029/050
4/R 35/O 13/R 57/R 54/O 23/R 23/O
MLS 040 029/040 028/053 032/048 032/051 030/055 031/052
2/O 22/O 11/B 44/R 32/O 11/B 11/B
4BQ 038 030/038 029/051 030/049 032/047 030/053 031/050
6/O 43/O 21/B 35/O 53/O 12/R 12/R
BHK 038 023/038 023/046 028/047 028/046 025/053 028/050
2/E 41/E 11/N 35/O 53/S 11/B 12/R
SHR 041 028/039 024/055 028/047 028/046 023/049 025/047
6/R 58/O 22/R 38/O 65/O 23/R 23/R
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6
PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 34-56-63-65-66-141-228.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
68.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONE 172.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page