281
FXUS65 KBYZ 301420
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
820 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SNOW TODAY. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.
- LOCALIZED FOG INTO MONDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (25-75%) FOR GREATER THAN 0.25
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
UPDATE
ONGOING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.
COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION,
ALONG WITH DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS, HAS ALLOWED FOR WET SNOW
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON LOCAL MT-MESONET,
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR ARE MOSTLY 1-2", WITH THE GREATEST BEING
2.2" AT COONEY RESERVOIR AS OF 8AM. HIGHWAY WEB CAMERAS SHOW SOME
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IN THE WEST, BUT I-90 IS WET AT SHERIDAN AND
BILLINGS. DO NOT SEE A NEED TO EXPAND ANY HIGHLIGHTS EASTWARD AS
THE SNOW WILL BECOME TOUGHER TO ACCUMULATE AS WE MOVE PAST SUNRISE,
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT IN WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS, IF AND WHERE THE STRATUS EXPERIENCES PARTIAL CLEARING.
THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE IMPACTS FROM
FOG FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS LINES UP OVER WYOMING, A SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SNOW TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F TODAY, ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER PRECIP TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LOCATIONS IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY MAY SEE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE UNTIL 6PM THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE FOOTHILLS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA, MELVILLE
FOOTHILLS, NORTHERN STILLWATER AND SWEETGRASS, AND WHEATLAND
COUNTIES. A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS
UNTIL 6PM WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.
WHILE HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT NEEDED IN THE PRYOR AND BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS, TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THEM TODAY.
TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING LIGHT POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. RIDGE BEGINS TO DEPART
AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST, MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL EXIST IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
A FINAL NOTE, LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY.
MATOS
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY
(50-90%), AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO WYOMING. ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE WAVE EVENTUALLY BECOMING AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST SD BY TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
ARE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, AS MOISTURE
AND NORTH/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS LOOK TO WRAP AROUND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW, BACK INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN/SNOW LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN ON THE
BACKSIDE.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD WITH THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES, YET THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNTS AS
ANY SMALL SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD CAUSE MORE OR LESS
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
RECEIVE 0.20 TO 0.80 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION, WITH 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.25
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS AROUND
30% IN THE NORTHEAST, TOWARDS 90% OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL, SEVERAL INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS (40-80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES,
HIGHEST IN THE BIGHORNS), WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. AN AREA TO WATCH IS THE HIGHER HILLS OF SE MT, WHERE
DYNAMIC COOLING OR STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST
COULD AID IN DRIVING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS LOWER THERE,
RESULTING IN A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THIS SCENARIO, AND MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.
ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST ALLOWING FOR
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
WORK INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM, RANGING FROM THE 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST DAYS. STP
AVIATION
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WET SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FLYING WEATHER WILL
IMPROVE, BUT AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
CONTINUING TO BRING LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD VFR IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 029/055 033/047 034/049 030/051 032/046 030/055
+/S 22/R 37/O 55/O 24/R 43/O 22/S
LVM 039 028/051 032/043 029/045 027/047 029/045 027/051
+/S 25/T 57/S 54/S 24/S 43/S 21/U
HDN 039 028/057 031/049 033/048 028/053 029/048 027/054
9/O 21/B 37/R 66/O 24/R 43/O 32/O
MLS 040 028/052 033/050 033/045 030/052 029/048 028/054
2/S 11/B 34/R 54/O 11/B 21/B 11/U
4BQ 038 028/051 032/047 033/042 028/049 029/047 027/049
5/S 21/B 25/R 66/O 12/R 22/R 22/O
BHK 038 024/045 029/044 027/040 025/048 026/047 024/050
2/S 10/N 35/O 65/S 11/B 22/R 11/U
SHR 037 024/054 027/047 028/042 021/048 024/043 023/048
+/O 31/B 28/O 77/O 24/R 24/O 43/O
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONES 34-56-63-65-66-141-172-228.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 68.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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