600
FXUS65 KBYZ 011013
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
413 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE
EXPECTED (8 TO 16" MOUNTAINS; 2 TO 5" FOOTHILLS), WITH LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS NEXT SHOT OF LOWER ELEVATION SNOW AND
COLDER TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND; EXPECT
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN US WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. SNOW WAS
GRADUALLY MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED
FOG CAUSING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, MOST WIDESPREAD OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST MT.
SNOW WILL SLOWLY SPREAD OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING, AS AN
INITIAL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL MT. AN UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WYOMING TODAY,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS
EVENING. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
AREAS TODAY, AND THEN WRAP BACK AROUND THE SURFACE LOW, GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BECOMING
MORE BANDED, AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL MT. THE
BAND OF PRECIPITATION, IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DROP FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN/SNOW DECREASES INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS, AND THE WAVE OVER MT
DROPS SOUTH.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE SURFACE FEATURES
PHASE WITH THE UPPER WAVES IN AND AROUND THE REGION TODAY, AND
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER, GREATLY IN SOME CASES WITH
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, BUT AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE OR LESS PRECIPITATION BASED ON WHERE THE SHOWERS
AND BANDING DEVELOP. CURRENTLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES ARE FORECAST FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN,
WITH LESSER TOTALS OVER THE NORTHEAST, AND DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO
1.50 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH REGARDS TO SNOW,
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS, WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON GRASSY SURFACES AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS (UP TO 20 INCHES IN
THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS, AND UP TO 12 INCHES IN
THE BIGHORN/PRYOR MOUNTAINS). HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BIGHORN/PRYOR MOUNTAINS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIGHORNS, WHERE
SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
REST OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN THE SAME.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S
TONIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS DOWN INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STP
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY.
UPPER WAVE IS SHOWN DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION, THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE TO
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. CONFIDENCE FOR STORM TOTALS IS LOW TO MODERATE AS
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHOW CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT THE PAST
FEW DAYS. UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START AS RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY EVENING, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES BETWEEN -7C AND -11C, FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOWER ELEVATION PRECIP
TYPE TO MOSTLY REMAIN AS SNOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 3-6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS TO ROUNDUP. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MOUNTAIN WEST,
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY, AND 50S-60S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
LOW STRATUS AND LOCALIZED FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH KLVM, K6S0, AND K3HT SEEING IMPACTS FIRST.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES BY MID-
LATE MORNING, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KSHR. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR WITH SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046 035/046 029/048 028/039 022/050 030/058 034/066
6/W 87/O 14/R 75/S 10/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 042 032/043 026/045 026/037 019/047 029/056 033/063
6/J 65/O 25/S 63/S 10/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 046 034/046 029/051 027/041 021/051 027/059 029/067
7/W 87/O 14/R 75/S 11/U 00/B 00/U
MLS 044 033/045 028/050 027/041 021/049 027/055 029/065
3/W 54/O 02/R 53/S 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 043 032/042 027/049 028/038 021/046 027/053 029/063
4/W 76/O 12/R 54/S 10/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 042 030/040 024/047 025/037 016/045 022/049 025/060
3/W 55/S 12/R 54/S 11/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 046 031/041 023/047 023/036 016/045 023/054 026/063
7/W 89/O 24/R 56/S 21/U 00/B 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 40-63>66-141-171-172-228.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6
PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 56.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ZONES 67-68.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3
PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 138.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONE 198.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3
PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 199.
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