442
FXUS65 KBYZ 020241
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
841 PM MDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPTIATION RETURNS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
CONVECTION IN OUR EAST HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED AS OF
0230Z. WE ARE UNDERGOING CLEARING SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW THAT IS
EXPANDING EASTWARD. LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL
YIELD A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40F
MOST PLACES...AND NOTORIOUSLY CHILLY SPOTS (E.G. BAKER &
SHERIDAN) DROPPING TO NEAR 30F. HRRR STILL NOT SHOWING FOG BUT
GIVEN RECENT RAIN SHOWERS JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S, PATCHY FOG SEEMS PLAUSIBLE FOR OUR
FAR EAST. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. JKL
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE (50-70%) EAST OF BILLINGS, ALTHOUGH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A SHOWER OR TWO AS FAR WEST AS
BIG TIMBER. NO STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL (< 0.5") IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. ARCHER
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY WILL START OUT WARM AND DRY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, A SPLITTING
TROUGH, APPROACHES OUR REGION. WHILE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THIS
SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTH-WESTERN UNITED STATES, THE NORTHERN PORTION, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY AROUND AND WEST OF BILLINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (15 TO 70 PERCENT, GREATEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN). A
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME
SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, SWITCHING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. WITH
THIS FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (30 TO 70 PERCENT OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70 TO 80 PERCENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BOTH DECREASING INTO TUESDAY). BECAUSE WE WILL BE IN-
BETWEEN THE SPLIT TROUGH, UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
MOVES A BIT MORE NORTH, LONGER DURATION PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR
OVER OUR AREA. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS TREND
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL GOES, NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
AT THIS TIME, MOST OF THE AREA HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF SEEING AT
LEAST A WETTING RAIN (0.10 INCHES OR MORE) OUTSIDE OF EASTERN
MONTANA AROUND MILES CITY TO BAKER WHERE THERE IS ONLY A MODERATE
CHANCE. PROBABILITIES OF 0.25 INCHES OR MORE DROP OFF WITH THERE
BEING A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE FOOTHILLS, 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OFF THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH BILLINGS, AND 25 PERCENT CHANCE AROUND
MILES CITY TO BAKER. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO
BEGIN AROUND 10,000 FEET SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO
DROP DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND 50S TO 60S
MONDAY. AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURE LOOK TO RETURN.
ARENDS
AVIATION
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, FOG IS FORECAST OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE ONCE
THE SUN COMES UP. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. ARENDS/TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/072 046/079 048/081 047/053 039/061 042/074 048/078
00/U 00/U 01/U 57/W 42/W 11/U 01/U
LVM 032/073 043/077 046/076 042/051 034/061 040/073 046/075
00/U 00/U 04/W 76/W 31/B 01/U 12/T
HDN 033/072 040/081 045/083 046/055 038/062 040/076 045/079
00/U 00/U 01/U 47/W 53/W 11/U 01/U
MLS 034/069 041/079 048/084 049/059 040/063 042/074 050/079
00/U 00/U 00/U 25/W 32/W 11/U 00/U
4BQ 033/065 040/076 049/081 049/060 040/059 042/070 048/075
10/U 00/U 00/U 14/W 43/W 11/U 01/U
BHK 030/064 037/075 044/080 047/064 037/062 039/069 044/074
20/U 00/U 00/N 13/T 32/W 11/U 00/U
SHR 030/068 039/076 043/080 043/053 034/056 037/069 042/074
00/U 00/U 01/U 37/W 64/W 21/U 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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