994
FXUS65 KBYZ 021118
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
518 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPTIATION RETURNS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
5AM UPDATE
WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED WITH SATELLITE IN SW ND EARLIER,
FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED OVER SE MONTANA THIS MORNING. AS TEMPS
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, SOME LOCALIZED FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) IN FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES WITH
VISIBILITIES ONLY GETTING DOWN TO 6 MILES AT WORST. WMR
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,
WARM AND DRY WILL BE THE THEME FOR THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH SUNRISE
THIS MORNING SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR SE MONTANA
WHICH WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE. THE 07Z KBHK METAR SHOWS
A DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF 3F; AND WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL
OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AT LEAST SOME MINOR FOG LOOKS
LIKELY. A FAST MOVING AND WEAK VORT MAX WILL PASS OVER MT LATER
TODAY WHICH, BASED OFF OF SATELLITE TRENDS, WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA WHICH MAY HELP TO SLIGHTLY
LIMIT THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA REMAINING
UNDER 80F.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE EXACT SAME SETUP AS TODAY BUT WITH
MINIMAL TO NO CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA TO
EXCEED 80F. LOCATIONS HIGHER THAN 4500-5000' WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO TOP 80, HOWEVER THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON LOOK LIKELY
EVEN ALL THE WAY UP TO THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THAT BEING SAID, DECENT
MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE ESEPCAILLY
PREVALENT FOR PLACES AT OR BELOW 7000' WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE OVER 60F. WITH A NICE DIURNAL CYCLE, AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME, THERE IS NO FLOODING THREAT FOR ANY OF
THE WATERWAYS ACROSS THE CWA. ADDITIONALLY, WITH RECENT RAINFALL
AND LIGHT WINDS, THE FIRE THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW. WMR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A
SPLITTING TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THIS
SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US, THE NORTHERN PORTION, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, LOOK TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR
REGION. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (30-70% CHANCE, HIGHEST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS) SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
AREAS, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW INTO THE REGION, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (40-80% CHANCE, GREATEST OVER THE
SOUTH). WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THE
LATEST PROBABILITY OF 0.50 INCHES OR MORE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY RANGES FROM 30-50% SOUTH AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO
BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN LINE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START OFF AROUND
10,000 FEET SUNDAY EVENING, DROPPING TO AROUND 6,000 FEET ON
MONDAY, REMAINING NEARLY STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S TO 80S ON SUNDAY, DROPPING INTO
THE 40S OVER THE WEST AND THE 60S OVER THE FAR EAST MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY WARM INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. STP
AVIATION
12Z DISCUSSION...
FG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED NEAR KBHK, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A 20%
CHANCE OF A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VIS (MVFR AT WORST) BEFORE 14Z.
DURING THE DAY TODAY SOME HIGH CLOUDS (AOA FL200) WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 047/081 048/082 047/052 039/058 041/073 049/079
0/U 00/U 01/U 47/W 53/W 10/U 01/U
LVM 073 044/077 045/077 043/049 034/056 039/072 046/076
0/U 00/U 04/W 77/W 41/B 00/U 02/T
HDN 072 042/080 045/084 046/054 038/059 039/075 045/080
0/U 00/U 01/U 37/W 63/W 10/U 01/U
MLS 069 041/080 049/085 050/062 041/062 044/074 049/079
0/U 00/U 00/U 14/W 42/W 10/U 00/U
4BQ 065 040/078 049/082 051/062 041/059 044/070 047/075
0/U 00/U 00/U 13/W 53/W 11/B 00/U
BHK 064 038/075 044/080 048/067 040/061 041/069 045/074
0/U 00/U 00/N 02/T 42/W 00/U 00/U
SHR 067 039/076 043/080 044/053 034/055 036/069 041/074
0/U 00/U 01/U 26/W 75/W 11/U 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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